Week 11: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Last week in fanduel was decent, as I was able to break even with a minimum number of games. I felt like my predictions were right on, but none of my players ended up seeing the end zone. Lacy, Bush, Decker, Hilton, Wright, and Gates averaged for 86.5 yards, but not a single TD between them. Thank god for Peyton and my awesome kicker prediction with Steven Hauschka! The most important thing to take away from all of this though is that I crushed tim with a score of 118 to 77.78. Its okay Tim. I’m sure Pryor and Dez will have that breakout game as soon as you stop playing them. Anyway, onto next week.

As always, in order of how much I like them.

WR1: Marvin Jones ($5600) CLE@CIN

One of the more interesting trends in fantasy football revolves around the CLE Cornerback, Joe Haden. As an absolutely dominant CB, Haden has been able to shut down some of the league’s best receivers. That has led to some really nice production from the #2s on the team. Through the first nine weeks, Haden’s coverage has led to the #1s on the opposing teams accumulating the final stat line: 31/313/1. The #2s on the team have posted a stat line of 52/588/5. This trend alone would be enough to get me to think about any #2 WR facing CIN, though Jones is worth a consideration any week. Very talented receiver that has proven to be a threat in the end zone. All this for a mere 5600.

RB1: Jamaal Charles ($8800) KC@DEN

Despite being 9-0, KC continues to be thought of as the second best team in their division. I expect them to play at their best, with the focal point of their offense reaping the benefits. Charles worst game this year came last week against BUF for 12.6 pts. I expect him to bounce back from such an abysmal score into the 20s where he should be living. Oh and Denver’s run D is not that great. Its numbers are inflated because no one can run while being so far down. That is not going to happen against KC’s strong Defense.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5900) WAS@PHI

Yeah, Im back on the Reed train. My bad for getting off of it. Go read one of my other posts for all the details about why I love Reed.

QB: Josh McCown ($5400) BAL@CHI

I feel like I am taking a bit of a risk here, but I like the value too much. I dont think McCown is very talented, but hes placed in a system where production will just happen. He has two massive receivers on the outside between Marshall and Jeffrey, and a RB that can catch anything. I really do think any QB could have production in this system with Trestman in their ear. The rock-bottom price will let me really splurge in my next pick.

WR2: Calvin Johnson ($10200) DET@PIT

If you’re gonna splurge, Megatron is always a good option. The only CBs I would have any fear of covering him are Haden and Sherman, neither of which play for the Steelers.

RB2: Andre Ellington ($6000) ARI@JAC

This one could blow up in my face, but I’m willing to risk it for the potential upside. The Ellington / Mendenhall situation in Arizona continues to be one of the weirdest in all of the NFL. Ellington is explosive and better then Mendy in every way, yet Mendy remains the main back. I could easily see Ellington blowing up on any play he gets the ball, while Mendy’s best case scenario is around a 10 yard gain. Hoping Ellington has a big play and they ride the hot hand the rest of the game.

WR3: Wes Welker ($7400) KC@DEN

Welker has been super consistent all year long, except for last week. I see that as a random blip, and I like the matchup for Welker this week. KC will pressure Manning, forcing him into quick throws to Welker.

D/ST: Arizona Cardinals ($5700) ARI@JAC

Jaguars won their first game. Now they dont have to worry about being grouped in with the 2008 Lions. Time for them to go back to Sucking For Teddy Bridgewater.

K: Nick Novak ($5000) SD@MIA

Good offense against a team that is 3rd in pts allowed to kickers. Sure, why not.

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Final Update to the Pick’ems

Ok, just had to get those in before the games started, here’s my slightly more in depth break down of the games Sunday afternoon and Monday.

Panthers – 49ers

Panthers – The 49ers have been a great power running team recently, but the Panthers D is no joke.  I don’t really think much of the Panthers offense, but I expect, in a low scoring game, the Panthers D to step up.  This could be a good game for Steve Smith or Greg Olsen, but I just don’t see the 49ers being able to do much.

Broncos – Chargers

Broncos – Broncos coming out of a bye, after losing?  Yea, I’ll take Peyton here.  I can never trust which of those receivers get the love normally, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they all get in the action here.  I think the Broncos do everything they can to shut down Keenen Allen, but that leaves Gates open for a good game.  I do think Woodhead gets a lot of work here in the passing game as well.  This ends up being a little bit of a shootout, but Broncos still win convincingly.

Texans – Cardinals

Texans – I love what Case Keenum did last week.  Just so impressive.  I think it had a ripple effect on the defense as well, as they see a player who will help them score points, and now are playing with purpose.  Things went off the handle a little bit when Kubiak went down, but I think the shock of that was only from that last half against the Colts and the Texans pick it back up here all game.  With Foster being out for the rest of the year, I see Tate picking up right where he left off.  I also see, surprise surprise, a Palmer pick 6 happening here.

Cowboys – Saints

Saints – This will be a shootout.  Brees is the king of shootouts, and should obviously have a good game.  I think the Cowboys try to get Murray going again, but have a hard time doing it, since I do believe the Saints know that’s the weakness on D and try to avoid ith.  I keep thinking Colston will have a good game, and if he can’t here (if active), I’m done with him.  In the end, Brees puts up a lot of points, and Romo just can’t keep it up.

Dolphins – Buccaneers

Buccaneers – This could go one of 2 ways.  The Dolphins could solidify themselves around the controversy and play an amazing game, or they could fall apart after having to answer these questions for the last week and losing starting linemen.  I think the latter.  I expect Hartline to actually have a really good game here, as Wallace will be on Revis Island.  I actually have liked what the Bucs have done recently, despite not getting any wins, as I think Glennon has played spectacularly for the situation he’s been thrown into.  V Jax will have a monster game here and the Bucs win handily.

Update to the Pick’ems

Alright, going to try to get the breakdowns here:

 

Bills – Steelers

Steelers – I think Spiller has a good game here.  Think he’s finally healthy, and showed what he can do when he is so.  That said, I think Manuel shows a bit of rust here and the Steelers run Bell all game long.

Bengals – Ravens

Ravens – Just way too many injuries to the Bengals, along with Dalton’s inconsistency should give the Ravens a chance to get back in the division race.

Lions – Bears

Lions – Hate to pick this one, but I think they’re rushing Cutler back too early.  I could be wrong, but a QB needs all his fundamentals to be accurate, and if there’s anything you worried about Cutler before his injury, it’s his fundamentals.  Think the injury causes a few balls to sail, and the Bears D won’t be able to stop Bush.

Eagles – Packers

Eagles – I realize Seneca Wallace can’t be that bad, but he can’t be that good either.  I don’t think the Eagles explode like last time, and I do think Lacy has a good game here, I just don’t see a Rodgers-less Packers team beating the Eagles.

Rams – Colts

Colts – I still hate Clemens, and while I think/hope he has a long TD to Chris Givens for the sake of my FanDuel lineup, Luck and the Colts should still have a good game here.  I actually think Trent Richardson has his first good game a Colt here, just call it a hunch.

Jaguars – Titans

Titans – It’s the Jags…

Raiders – Giants

Raiders – I think the Giants are definitely improving, but I like Pryor here. 

Seahawks – Falcons

Seahawks – I know a lot of people are thinking upset here, and while the Seahawks D hasn’t looked like the Seahawks D, I think they step it up for this game. 

 

Tim’s Pick’em

Hey Guys,

 

I’ve got to get these in quick, so I won’t give my analysis here, but I’ll break down the games after:

Bills – Steelers

Steelers

Bengals – Ravens

Ravens

Lions – Bears

Lions

Eagles – Packers

Eagles

Rams – Colts

Colts

Jaguars – Titans

Titans

Raiders – Giants

Raiders

Seahawks – Falcons

Seahawks

Panthers – 49ers

Panthers

Broncos – Chargers

Broncos

Texans – Cardinals

Texans

Cowboys – Saints

Saints

Dolphins – Buccaneers

Buccaneers

Tim’s FanDuel Post

Hey All!

Here’s the post I assume you all came for, as I beat Nick once again last week…boom.  I had a good week, with 135, but not spectacular, as I didn’t predict Nick Foles or Riley Cooper would have the games they did, and apparently some people drunkenly picked them.  Only explanation…anyways, I think I’m going to switch up my style a little bit.  I’m going to pick up a few WRs this wek that are outside the box a little bit, in hopes they blow up and no one has them.  High risk, but you know what they say, go big or go home.

Terrelle Pryor  – 7500

I’ve been banging on this drum for a while now, but I love Pryor.  He hasn’t had a breakout game yet, which is what I’m banking on, but he does constantly put up numbers and for a QB that cheap, with huge upside, I’m game.  The Giants should  keep the game close up be up is my guess, so he won’t get relegated to hand off duties.

Reggie Bush – 8500
This probably isn’t a surprise after everyone watched Eddie Lacy run all over the Bears, but the Bears run D is just horrid. Bush tore them apart last game, and with Briggs still out, I can’t imagine it gets any better this time.

CJ Spiller – 7400
He’s been injured, but he finally showed a sign of life last week. This week, against a Steelers D that isn’t what it once was, I think he finally shows why everyone thought so highly of him before the year began.

Dez Bryant – 8200
He hasn’t quite blown up like I’d hope, but this game should be a little bit of a shootout, so I’m hoping Dez gets in on it instead of Witten or Terrance Williams. His value is down, so now’s as good a time as any to try to take advantage.

Chris Givens – 4500
Minimum price WR that gives you plenty of upside. Unlike with Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens seems to think Givens is his no. 1 receiver. Now I’m still no fan of Clemens, but a no. 1 WR with breakaway speed on a team I imagine will be down has a chance to blow up for a long TD.

Golden Tate – 4500
Wow, Tate has dropped quickly. It was just last week everyone was saying how he’d have to step up with Sidney Rice out, but one bad game against Darrelle Revis and now he’s a minimum player? I think Tate is a great play, and should get plenty of opportunties, as I think the Falcons have a much better game than we’ve seen in the last few weeks and keep it close.

Jimmy Graham – 8700
Just so good. You can’t say enough about Graham this year, and against the Cowboys, who should put up plenty of points, I think he keeps it up here.

Matt Prater – 5400
I think this game is a shootout, and K on a great offense should be in range plenty. I also had an extra 400 above minimum to spend, so why not.

Houston Texans – 5300
I think the Texans D was energized by Case Keenum (who I love btw, I was just so impressed with him last week). Cardinals are bad, and while I like Andre Ellington, Carson Palmer is going to turn it over plenty. I think Keenum puts the Texans up big and Palmer is forced to throw.

Week 10: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week was a decent week for Fanduel, though Tim’s team did end up besting mine with a score of 135.62 to 114.26. Lots of really random big games for players around the league, and unfortunately I did not guess them (find me the post on the internet that predicted the 7x TD game for nick foles… I dare you). Anyway, looking forward to this week, here are my picks (as always, in the order in which I am confident in them).

RB1: Reggie Bush ($8500) DET@CHI
I would normally not be the most confident in a RB that is not the #1 weapon on a team, but for anyone that has not been paying attention, CHI’s run D is pretty god awful. Posted this history last week, and its worth repeating again. Here are the running stats against chicago in the last four games.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3
GB – 29/199/2

Without any threat of throwing the ball, GB was able to average 6.9 YPC against an 8-man front. You just cant do that against DET with Megatron out there. To top this all off, last time these two teams met, Chicago’s Run D was much stronger and they gave up 25.3 game to Bush. I like everything about this.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6200) DEN@SD
What I said two weeks ago about Decker being a steal for 6500 continues to remain true. Here, it gets even better. He is now priced 300 less, facing a very weak secondary in SD. I know hes not the guy you want in DEN, but for this price, how can you turn it down?

RB2: Eddie Lacy ($6800) PHI@GB
The one thing I do not like about Fanduel is that they do not update their prices very well. With Rodgers down, everyone knows that GB is going to run the ball 30 times. Lacy will get his, and at the price of $6800, you cant turn it down. This will be the last week Lacy will be going at steal prices, and while I dont like the idea of him probably being owned in 50% of teams this week, Im not going to go against the grain just for the sake of it.

WR2: T.Y. Hilton ($6000) STL@IND
There were 4 3x TD games last week for WRs and this is the one I was most willing to chase the points on. The loss of Wayne means that IND’s production will have to go somewhere. Hilton just stands as the biggest threat on the team, and I dont think its even close. The #1 WR on a good team with a great QB… for $6000? Yup, taking it.

QB: Peyton Manning ($10600) DEN@SD
Ive saved enough at this point where I can now splurge on a player. I feel like Manning’s floor this week is 25 pts, with his ceiling being… well… whatever he decides. SD has a bad D and Manning is coming off of a bye. Lots of pts. Lots.

TE: Antonio Gates ($5600) DEN@SD
Yeah, Im giving a lot of action on this game. I faded on my favorite TE, Jordan Reed, this week in favor of Gates, just because I wanted some piece of the SD side of this game. I still think DEN’s defense is bad, and SD’s improved offensive line will be able to hold rivers up long enough to pass the ball and not get pinatad like RG3 was two weeks ago. I see Gates as being one of the benefactors of this (along with Woodhead and Allen). Should be a really high scoring game.

DEF: Tennessee Titans ($5800) JAC@TEN
Yeah, I got burned on them last week. This week is against JAC though. How can I not go back to this well? I am no longer 100% believer in TEN’s D, but the options this week were slim.

WR3: Kendall Wright ($5200) JAC@TEN
There were a lot of options to choose from to close out the team, including Mike Brown, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Denarius Moore, but I ended up settling on Wright. He has shown that with Locker at the helm, he is going to get targets. Against an awful JAC team, there is a good chance for some production here.

K: Steven Hauschka ($5300) SEA@ATL
Figure SEA wins this game, but finds ways to not get in the end zone. Hauschka has been a pretty consistent option this season.

Week 10: Nick’s Pickem and Recap

Last week was one of those weeks where you can’t really be upset about not predicting everything perfectly.  When Nick Foles matches Peyton Manning’s greatness from week 1, and Riley Cooper and Jerricho Cotchery are catching 3 TDs each, you are reminded of the nature of football.

For Pickem, I went 7-6 and Tim went 6-7.  Yay!  I won… I guess.  Lots of surprises including the Jets beating the Saints and the Bears beating the Packers.  Here are this week’s picks for me.  (One quick note about Fanduel this week.  I am going to wait and have my lineup not include Thursday’s game.  My final lineup did not include any players from that game, though I could see multiple people go off for big games.  For that reason, id rather just not include it).

WAS @ MIN

I think that the Vikings are a pretty inept team, but they have been riding Adrian Peterson as of late and I think they continue to do so in a game where the opposition cant stop him.

SEA @ ATL

Seattle has been pretty trashy lately, but has still managed to squeak out wins.  I see this game as the one where they breakout of their funk and start to actually look impressive again.

CIN @ BAL

Baltimore is tough at home, but its just not the same team anymore.  If they cant beat the Browns off the bye, I have to drop all other trends regarding Baltimore and evaluate the team as it is now.

DET @ CHI

Chicago can’t stop the run even when they are 100% sure a run is coming.  Here, they face a team where they cant focus on stopping the run because the opposing team has the best WR to ever play the game.  And he is being covered by Tillman who has not been 100%.  Im sure Chicago will score, just not enough.

PHI @ GB

Philly always seems to play better on the road and GB has become completely 1-dimensional as long as Seneca Wallace is behind center.  I, like everyone else in the world, think that Nick Fole’s W9 performance was a fluke.  Still think Philly can pull it out.

STL @ IND

The Rams are playing some interesting football lately.  Run the ball.  Ride Zac Stacy until there is no more tread on those tires.  They haven’t always been winning, but theyve been looking much better overall.  I think they end up winning this game barely.  IND tends to lose games they should win and win games they should lose.

OAK @ NYG

So apparently OAK is not as good as some people thought they were?  Guess it is our fault for believing in the Raiders again.  Between two bad teams, im just gonna go with the home team.

BUF @ PIT

I always seem to pick against the Bills, but not going to do it this week.  NE was able to run all over PIT last week, so I imagine much of the same will happen here with Spiller and Jackson both amassing a ton of yards.

JAC @ TEN

Not picking Jacksonville.  Ever.

CAR @ SF

I really like Carolina, but they have been facing some bad teams lately and this is their first real test in awhile.  SF at home, coming off a bye.  Thats enough for me.

HOU @ ARI

I like that the Texans basically have nothing to play for and will therefore have Keenum air it out the whole game.  Im sure he produces TDs, but also some INTs with ARI eventually winning out.  I wish I could know how many touches Andre Ellington would get in this game beforehand, cause I would be glad to pick based on that.  Over 15?  Cardinals all the way.  Under 5.  Houston.

DEN @ SD

I like San Diego, but its Denver off the bye.

DAL @ NO

Betting NO to win at home is one of the safest bets in the NFL.  I know that DAL is not a bad team, but its NO.  At home.

MIA @ TB

God I feel dirty for picking TB to win their first game.  I dont believe MIA is a bad team, but I just dont know how they remain focused for this one with everything that is going on with Incognito.  I never expected TB to go 0-16, so this is as good of a game as any to predict their first win.