Week 9 : Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week had its ups-and-downs.  If you only read my initial fanduel post last week and not the sunday morning follow-up, it was absolutely more downs.  Heres a quick recap of some of the highs and lows.

Hit:  Andre Ellington.  Last minute change based on Mendenhall being out.  Ellington proved his talent by flourishing when he was given a decent workload.  His 80-yd TD run was a thing of beauty.  I still dont know if Arians is going to realize what he has and do the right thing, so be careful on how much faith you have in Ellington going forward.

Miss:  RG3.  Oh what a miss.  Looking back on it, I would say here is the lesson to be learned.  RG3 excels best when his team can run the ball.  Forcing him to be the playmaker just hasnt worked this season like it did last.

Hit: Jordy Nelson.  The most consistent WR this season had a great game against a bad Defense.  Yeah, wasnt the last time Im picking him.

Miss:  Marshawn Lynch.  Apparently, Lynch’s actions pissed off his coaching staff.  Enough to the point where they decided to not lean on him when they should have.  I expect Lynch to bounce back, though my confidence is shaken.

Miss:  Sproles / Colston.  I accurately predicted that NO would do awesome.  I inaccurately predicted how it was going to be done.  Still cant believe Sproles got a zero, but hopefully you switched him out sunday morning like suggested.

Alright, moving onto to next week.  Here are my initial thoughts.  Again, in order of what I am most confident in.

RB1: Eddie Lacy ($6800) CHI@GB

I really do not understand how Lacy can only be $6800 given the last few weeks and the matchup.  GB has been running more then ever, with Lacy being the head guy.  The last three weeks he has brought in the following fantasy numbers 13, 19.3, 19.2.  This week, he faces an abysmal Chicago Run D that only got worse with the loss of defensive leader Lance Briggs.  Briggs has not only been the playmaker, but has been the one making the adjustments.  Chicago’s D looks to only get worse and that is bad.  Here are the rushing stats they have given up the last three weeks.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3

Anyone can run on CHI right now, and Lacy is very capable of doing so.  Start him with confidence for his ridiculously cheap price.

WR1: Denarius Moore ($4900) PHI@OAK

I hate going back to someone that burned me in the past, but there is just too much value here to pass up.  Moore had a bad last week against a tough pass D in a conservative gameplan.  This week, he faces the team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs.  As the #1 receiver for his team, and averaging 11.4 FPPG, I cannot pass up the $4900 price tag.

TE:  Jordan Reed ($5600) SD@WAS

If you have been watching the WAS games lately, you will know why I plan on riding Jordan Reed until he gets injured or until his price tag goes up to $6500 or so.  He has become RG3s favorite target, and while that didnt mean many TDs last week, it still meant a line of 8/90/0 for Reed.  Upon dropping two passes, Reed was apparently distraught the whole week and forced himself to catch 500 balls from a football chucker.

QB:  Cam Newton ($8900) ATL@CAR

While I really like some of the cheaper options this week including Locker and Pryor, I already included enough value to allow myself to splurge a bit.  Cam Newton is the definition of a boom or bust player, and the matchup is too good to ignore.  It can be hard to predict when Cam Newton will go off, but when he does, its worth it.  This week, he faces an ATL D that is worse then they appear.  Here is their history this season in terms of pts allowed to QBs.

Drew Brees 20.48 #4 Week
Sam Bradford 26.58 #1 Week
Ryan Tannehill 14.14 #4 Week
Tom Brady 20.44 #1 Week
Geno Smith 22.06 #3 Week
Mike Glennon 17.54 #2 Week
Carson Palmer 13.78 #3 Week

So pretty much everyone that faces ATL has one of their best weeks against them.  The only reason ATL isnt near the top of the pts allowed list is because of the quality of QBs they have faced.  Should be a good chance for Cam Newton to go off.

WR2:  Jordy Nelson ($7800) CHI@GB

This goes against my rule of no WR/RB combinations, but I love both this week enough to roll the dice.  Nelson is the most consistent WR this year, and he is still available for under 8k.  Against an awful defense, while the rest of the main WR core is still in question.  Guaranteed points with a huge upside.  Whats not to like?

RB2:  Le’Veon Bell ($7000) PIT@NE

I originally went for Danny Woodhead in this slot, but changed to Bell given the extra money.  Bell has been running well since coming back from injury and he faces a defense that has struggled greatly against the run since losing Wilfork.  Bell should be good for 60 yards and a TD with a chance at multiple TDs if the situation is right.

WR3:  AJ Green ($8700) CIN@MIA

With enough leftover funds, I had the choice between AJ and Dez.  Both are absolute studs, and I don’t think I would be crazy for picking either.  This was more of a pick against Dez then it was a pick for AJ.  Dez has two interesting trends going into this game.  Trend #1 involves a number 1 receiver complaining about his role in an offense and then blowing up the next week.  This year, it started with Wallace in MIA, and then later in CHI with Marshall.  Always gotta keep the #1 receiver happy.  The other trend is that when DAL wins a game, Dez has a bad-to-mediocre game.  When Dez loses a game, he has a great fantasy week.  I dont see any chance at MIN beating DAL, so I expect this to be a loss and therefore Dez to just not be a big part of their offensive plan.  For that reason, I’m going with the other high-priced stud receiver.

D/ST:  Tennessee Titans ($5200) TEN@STL

I officially do not believe in the KC D anymore.  After being burned the last two weeks, I decided to go for a more economical option based on matchup.  TEN is in the fight for a playoff shot, and coming off of a bye, I expect them to play strong against a STL team that will be drained after a tough last second loss.  To make matters worse, the only positive that can be said regarding STL’s offense has been Zac Stacy.  He is now injured.  I don’t see how STL is capable of doing anything here.

K:  Nick Novak ($5000) SD@WAS

WAS has a bad D.  SD can move the ball.  Yeah, that’s all I got.

Week 9: Pickem and Recap of Last Week

Hey everyone!

Sorry for the few days absence.  Should have everything for w9 coming up.  First, a recap of a conversation I had earlier in the week with Tim.

Me: “I redeemed myself this week!  Went 10-2 this week in Pickem!”

Tim: “I went 11-1”

Me: “DAMNIT!”

Of course I improve this week only to still fall a game short.  I liked ARZ, but still doubted them.  I also went with the home-dog in a game of two bad teams.  Apparently, I underestimated just how bad PHI is when their offense struggles.  Just nothing to show for the last couple of weeks.  Alright, so moving on here are this week’s picks.

CIN@MIA

CIN is just clicking on all levels and MIA is #1 in sacks allowed.  Not going to be an easy night for the phins.
ATL@CAR

ATL has been an easy ride for all QBs theyve faced, and now they are going on the road against a red hot cam newton.  To make matters worse, Carolina’s D is no joke.
MIN@DAL

MIN is awful.  Having Adrian Peterson on your team is like lowering the difficulty setting to easy, and still losing.  DAL is the same team as theyve always been, and will finish probably finish the season around 9-7.  I expect this game to be one of the 9.
NO@NYJ

So it looks like I was right about NO coming out of their bye week stomping the opposition.  I was completely wrong in how they were going to do it, but thats another story for another post.  The jets can do one thing really really well and that is stop the run.  Shame it wont matter in this contest cause they are facing drew brees.
TEN@STL

TEN is one of those sneaky teams that has an actual chance at a playoff birth.  Coming out of a bye week, I expect them to stomp STL who is just coming off of a very disappointing last second loss against a divisional rival.
KC@BUF

KC is not going 16-0 this season, but I also don’t think they are losing to BUF.
SD@WAS

So apparently all those “RG3 IS BACK!” thoughts are distant history, right?  Again, another story for another post.  SD has been playing smart football lately, and I personally think Mike McCoy should at least be mentioned in the coach of the year discussions (yeah, I know its going to Reid, but like I said, the mention should be there).  Just look what he has done with Rivers, Woodhead, and Matthews.  Coming out of a bye, I always believe in coaching, and against a WAS team riddled with weaknesses, I see SD coming out on top.
PHI@OAK

Poor Chip Kelly.  Apparently no one told him that Vick is not capable of playing a whole season, and an offense revolving around him is a bad idea.  Without Vick, this offense has no purpose.  That just leaves an awful defense.  Weird to pick OAK with confidence, but that is what I am doing here.
TB@SEA

Schiano fired yet?  No?  Alright, I’ll ask again next week.
BAL@CLE

I am a huge believer that CLE is an underrated team, but again… I am going with good coaching coming out of a bye.  I am hoping Ray Rice visited some Tibet monk to try and regain his running essence.
PIT@NE

I think that PIT will run all over NE in this one, but NE will find a way to win… like they always do.
IND@HOU

Not a huge Indy fan after the loss of Reggie Wayne, but im less of a HOU fan.  Foster’s status for this game is unsure, and that leaves their offense with much to be desired.
CHI@GB

Chicago Bears homer here.  This one is going to be ugly.  There are no words to describe how bad our run D is, and the only guy that has been doing anything all season (Lance Briggs) will be out for the first time.  I expect Lacy to make his rookie of the year claims on Monday night.