Week 8 : Nick’s Fanduel Update

Not always going to post these, but there is one particular development this morning that alters my fanduel lineup.

ARI RB Rashad Mendenhall was out of practice all week and has officially been ruled out of today’s game.  That puts rookie RB Andre Ellington into the spotlight against Atlanta.  While I still do not trust ARI to ride Ellington as much as they should, here is a very talented starting RB that you can slot into your lineup for a mere $5200.  That’s a steal that I have to take advantage of.  From my previously posted lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/10/24/week-8-nicks-fanduel-lineup/), I am dropping Sproles for Ellington, giving me a whopping $1400 additional to play with.  Here is what I am doing with it.

Upgrading KC D to SEA D ($100)

Been wanting to do this because of the switch from Wheeden, but could never come up with the $100.  This was the first option I jumped to.

Upgrading Jordan Reed to Tony Gonzalez ($200)

I am not 100% sold on this being an upgrade, but I did want to create a bit of variety in my lineups because Reed is slotted in the majority of my Thursday lineups.  This is as best-case-scenario to play Gonz that you are going to see all season with ARI being the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to TEs.  If Gonz cant break double digits in this game, he wont be rosterable in fanduel for the rest of the season IMO.

Upgrading Denarius Moore to Marques Colston ($1000)

Graham is officially ACTIVE for this game, though I expect him to be very limited.  No reason for them to push the guy against what should be a layup.  I still want a stake in this game as NO should roll Buffalo.  Colston hasnt been himself all season, but he has that boom/bust potential as high as anyone in the league.  Rolling the dice here and hoping for his breakout game.

Upgrading Henery to Akers ($100)

Had a $100 left.  Guess ill update my kicker to a Akers in what should be a high scoring game.

Week 8 : Sunday and Monday Pickem

Redemption Time!  Had just the worst week last week, so now its time to set it right.  Here goes!

DAL@DET

So I actually see these two teams as being really even, with the difference maker here being home field advantage.  Dallas’ D has been playing well yesterday, though I don’t think they have the weapons to stop Detroit on the road when Detroit is fully healthy.  That last word being the key word there.  Megatron looked healthy enough last week when he crushed the competition, but there have been reports of Reggie Bush also suffered an injury in practice, though it is looking like he will play.  I have DET squeaking out a win here.

SF@JAC

SF is apparently a good team.  JAX is apparently a bad one.  I really shouldn’t have to explain this one.

CLE@KC

If CLE had Hoyer behind QB, I might actually make the argument that they have a chance.  With Jason Campbell back there, they are primed for defeat.  The one interesting thing about this game to me is Haden’s nullification.  One of the best things about this defense is Haden’s ability to shut down the opposing team’s #1 receiver.  What the hell is he going to do this game?  Shut down Dwayne Bowe?  I imagine Bowe laughing at Haden all game while on the line of scrimmage as Haden watches from out wide as Jamaal Charles tears apart his team.

MIA@NE

Okay, Gronk had his practice run, now its time for the real thing.  MIA just isnt that good and NE should roll them.

BUF@NO

While BUF is not a bad team, NO should be unstoppable this week.  Suffered their first loss two weeks ago and then went into a bye week.  Two weeks to stew in their own defeat and formulate a game-plan for BUF when they play them at home.  I don’t see any scenario where NO loses this week at home, regardless of who they were facing.

NYG@PHI

Two evenly bad teams, I am going to go with the homer again.  I do think Vick being back is a plus for the Eagles, though they will almost assuredly lose the game if Barkley has to step in at QB if Vick gets injured.

NYJ@CIN

Still dont believe in the Jets.  Starting to believe in the Bengals.

PIT@OAK

This is a tough one.  OAK is an interesting team for the first time in years and they are coming off a bye at home.  I think OAK barely edges this one out.

ATL@ARI

Interesting stat.  Every time a team has played SEA this year, that team has lost the following week.  Apparently, the defense runs you ragged.  To make matters even worse, the last three defenses ARI has played have been CAR, SF, and SEA.  Figure it will be a week removed from that schedule before they can fully recover.  Also, ARI is a dumb team that knows how to lose games, while ATL is still convinced they can make the playoffs and will therefore be fighting with everything they have.

 

WAS@DEN

Nothing cures a football hangover like the WAS D.  Peyton Manning and company should take advantage of one of the worst Ds in football.  I expect a shootout here with the final score being closer then most think, though DEN winning in the end.

GB@MIN

MIN made the argument for them actually being the worst team in the league despite having a win and having one of the best players in football on their team.  Ponder is the new QB over that other guy, so that at least gives them a chance.  Oh wait, no it doesnt cause they are playing GB.  GB will destroy them and look good doing it.

 

SEA@STL

If you are starting your first game as QB, the last thing I would want would be to stare down the secondary of SEA.  STL needs about 3-4 special teams TDs for any chance to win this.  Not happening.

Week 8 : Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Every week we will be posting our primary Fanduel lineups prior to Thursday’s game.  For any of you that do not know what Fanduel is, it is a site for 1-week salary cap based fantasy leagues. I highly recommend checking it out for any fantasy football enthusiasts (www.fanduel.com).  If you don’t care at all about Fanduel, these posts should still have some valuable information about the players we like the most this week. This should go without saying, but I do feel I need to state the obvious. Do not go betting your life savings on one of these lineups and then curse our names when it doesn’t score 200 pts. Remember that in the end, its always your call. Alright, here goes…

The best way to go through my lineup is to go through my process and show it in the same order that I built it. I’ll start with my must-haves and build around them accordingly.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6500) WAS@DEN
The more I looked at this, the more I realized just how criminally under-priced Decker currently is. He is currently the same price as Harry Douglas, Mike Wallace, and Roddy White despite coming off of a season high 25 pt game and an ideal match up. Both WAS and DEN have horrible defenses with great offenses. This should be a high scoring game, but its even better than that for Decker. DeAngelo Hall has been playing pretty well the last few weeks, holding Dez Bryant to a 5/36/0 line and Brandon Marshall to a 6/75/0 line. For covering these elite WRs, these are great numbers. Expect him to shadow Demarius Thomas the whole game, leaving Decker to the remaining secondary that has let WR2s shine all season. Combine this with the WAS safety being suspended and an angry peyton manning and decker actually has a chance of topping the previous week. All that for a mere $6500.

WR2: Jordy Nelson ($7800) GB@MIN
Yup, another WR that I think we are getting great value out of. Nelson has been awesome the whole season, even managing to put up a 5/42/1 line last week against one of the top 3 corners in the league in Joe Haden. I imagine that was a game where Rodgers would have liked to rely on his only experienced WR, but couldn’t because of Haden. I see Rodgers making up for it this week against a secondary that is 9th in pts allowed to WRs. Oh and its a Sunday night game, and Rodgers has an ego that pushes him into overdrive when the spotlight is on him. Can easily see him feeding Jordy all game.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5400) WAS@DEN
If you read my previous article on WW pickups, this shouldnt come as a surprise. Massive value here in a great matchup for a talented TE on a strong offense. I imagine WAS going into catchup mode early in this game and Reed acting as RG3’s favorite target. And yes, Gronk is a tempting option here, but I ended up going for the value pick.

RB1: Marshawn Lynch ($8600) SEA@STL
I’ll always prefer to be stacked at RB, and I have conserved enough so far that I can splurge a bit here. Lynch is the 4th priced RB this week, though I think I might actually have him as my favorite overall regardless of price. STL is garbage against the run (4th) and SEA has no problems running up the score against a divisional opponent. In addition to the amazing matchup, SEA re-signed their former pro-bowl lead blocking fullback Michael Robinson. Robinson was cut at the beginning of the season due to salary and an illness, but is now back in full force. Lynch is a fan, and you should be too. This is also a good time to point out one of my favorite all time screen caps from a football game. Below you will find Lynch’s reaction towards his sideline after coming out of the huddle in a goal line situation where the play-call was play-action pass.

Lynch

QB: Robert Griffin III ($8800) WAS@DEN
3rd player from this game now, so going to keep it short. Old RG3 is back, and Den is #1 in pts allowed for QBs. Yes, I would like to have Peyton on my team (like I would every week), but this is a much more economical option.

RB2: Darren Sproles ($6600) BUF@NO
Tim wrote the following in his PickEm article last week “Love teams (or at least decent and good teams) coming out of their bye.” Absolutely agree with this, but need to stress the good part. MIA turned out to not fit that criteria, but NO does. Sean Peyton is one of the top coaches in the NFL and he just went into the bye week after his team’s first loss of the season. Thinking he didn’t spend that much time at the beach. NO lost mainly because their biggest weapon, Jimmy Graham was completely shut down. He also suffered an injury that left his status as questionable for the last two weeks. I imagine Peyton has spent the last two weeks game-planning for an alternative option. I think this will include heavy use of their second most talented player in Darren Sproles. Id consider investing in a NO receiver, but this is a safer pick.

D: Kansas City Chiefs ($5900) CLE@KC
This is where I will personally start to vary up my lineups. I was 100% on board with the KC D before the recent announcement of Jason Campbell starting over Wheeden. Campbell is just as much of a hack, but he is a conservative hack. Where Wheeden will stand in the pocket way too long as he waits for someone to get open, Campbell will just check down every pass. I still like KC to possibly shut out CLE completely, but I don’t expect the massive sacks / turnovers that I would with Wheeden. Still, it felt like the best option given my remaining funds.

WR3: Denarius Moore ($5400) PIT@OAK
Purely a value pick. Moore has been averaging 12.7 FPPG this season, yet he is only $5400. Felt he was the best option all the way up to $6000 where Terrance Williams was available, which explains why I still went with KC as my D.

K: Alex Henery ($5000) NYG@PHI
Henery put up 20 pts when PHI last faced NYG. Hope he does it again?

Final lineup
QB: Robert Griffin III ($8800)
RB1: Marshawn Lynch ($8600)
RB2: Darren Sproles ($6600)
WR1: Jordy Nelson ($7800)
WR2: Eric Decker ($6500)
WR3: Denarius Moore ($5400)
TE: Jordan Reed ($5400)
K: Alex Henery ($5000)
D: Kansas City Chiefs ($5900)

Week 8 : Top 5 Waiver Adds

Skipping the game recaps this week.  You know what happened.  Here are my opinions on the top 5 waiver adds.  To qualify, the player needs to be under 50% added in yahoo teams.

1)  WAS TE – Jordan Reed (28% Owned)

For me, the choice was easy this week.  Jordan Reed was an absolute monster this week against CHI.  9 catches on 9 targets for 134 yards and a touchdown.  Washington’s Offense has started to click again, and the emergence of Reed has been a major contributing factor.   He seemed to haul in everything that came his way, and I expect his chemistry with RG3 to only improve.  The only downside here is his health.  Started the season injured and had to leave the field mid-game with another.  All reports indicate he is good to go for week 8 against the Broncos, which promises to be a shootout.

2) GB WR – Jarret Boykin (34% Owned)

I’m not completely sold on Boykin’s talent, but hes a WR that has Rodgers throwing him the ball.  He will be fantasy relevant.  With Cobb and now Finley out, Boykin steps in as the slot, short-range guy in that offense.  The packers receiver that is expected back soon, James Jones, shouldnt have too much of an impact on Boykin as Jones will lineup wide.   If you are still not sold on Boykin, just look at his schedule over the next 5 weeks.  MIN, CHI, PHI, NYG, and MIN.

3) WAS RB – Roy Helu Jr (25% Owned)

I know… the 3 TD game is probably not going to be repeated anytime soon.  Thats not the only reason I am high on Helu.  Over the past 3 weeks in PPR leagues, he has scored 15.4, 9.7, and 23.1.  He has progressed into that rare RB that serves not only as a handcuff with a massive ceiling, but also a nice bye-week fill in.  It is not a completely unpopular opinion that Helu and Alfred Morris’ roles would be completely switched if Helu wasnt injured at the start of last year.  This year, he has a role and is shining at it.  When WAS is down and playing catch up (almost always), Helu comes in as the check-down back.  This week, they play DEN.  Perfect time to see Helu continue to get action.

4) IND WR – Darrius Heyward Bey (23% Owned)

I wouldn’t normally recommend someone that is going into their bye week, but DHB could have huge potential in light of Reggie Wayne’s season ending injury.  Wayne was receiving some of the highest volume of targets in the league, and those targets will need to go somewhere.  Expect T.Y. Hilton and DHB to pick up the slack as it is unlikely they will be able to lean on Trent Richardson.  That is… if they want to remain competitive.

5) ARI RB – Andre Ellington (46% Owned)

Ugh.  I had to include him.  One of my favorite players this year and probably the most talented guy on this list.  Andre Ellington suffers only from bad coaching decisions.  Progression was there every week with Ellington seeing more and more touches and snaps.  He continued with a 7 YPC and 10 YPR average.  Then Arians decided to leave him almost completely out of the game against SEA.  My assumption is that he bounces back big this week with Arizona realizing their mistake.  Logic tells me this.  It also told me that he would have been the starter weeks ago.  Who knows, but the talent is worth a bench spot if you have the room.

Alright so there you have it!  Tim and I should have our Fanduel lineups posted before Thursday’s game, so make sure to be on the look out for that.