Week 11: How the Weather Impacted My Fanduel Lineup

Like I mentioned in the pickem, there are a few games this week that are going to be heavily effected by weather. They are.

BAL@CHI
CLE@CIN
NYJ@BUF
DET@PIT (lesser extent)

With that in mind, I made a few changes to my fanduel lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/11/14/week-11-nicks-fanduel-lineup/).

Out: Josh McCown ($5400)
In: Case Keenum ($6600)

I really did want to ride with McCown this week, but this wind here in Chicago is ridiculous and I just dont see him having a great day because of that. HOU has been throwing like crazy lately, and I love the matchup against OAK. Placing Keenum in still retains the value pick, but other changes will have to be made.

Out: Calvin Johnson ($10200)
In: Andre Johnson ($7500)

Yeah, Calvin will still probably have a great game, cause no CB or act of god can stop him, but I needed to make up some money somewhere. Decided to go with the most expensive option on the team that now gets a slight downgrade because of potential weather. Andre Johnson has been making the most out of every pass from Keenum, and I always like to double up with WR+QB combinations.

Out: Marvin Jones ($5600)
In: Vincent Jackson ($7100)

This one hurts the most. I really did think that Jones was in for a monster game this week, but with the weather, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Had a little leftover funds from the Johnson downgrade, so I upgraded here to Vincent Jackson. ATL has a horrendous secondary and TB has said they want to feed the ball to VJAX more. Sounds good to me.

Week 11: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Last week in fanduel was decent, as I was able to break even with a minimum number of games. I felt like my predictions were right on, but none of my players ended up seeing the end zone. Lacy, Bush, Decker, Hilton, Wright, and Gates averaged for 86.5 yards, but not a single TD between them. Thank god for Peyton and my awesome kicker prediction with Steven Hauschka! The most important thing to take away from all of this though is that I crushed tim with a score of 118 to 77.78. Its okay Tim. I’m sure Pryor and Dez will have that breakout game as soon as you stop playing them. Anyway, onto next week.

As always, in order of how much I like them.

WR1: Marvin Jones ($5600) CLE@CIN

One of the more interesting trends in fantasy football revolves around the CLE Cornerback, Joe Haden. As an absolutely dominant CB, Haden has been able to shut down some of the league’s best receivers. That has led to some really nice production from the #2s on the team. Through the first nine weeks, Haden’s coverage has led to the #1s on the opposing teams accumulating the final stat line: 31/313/1. The #2s on the team have posted a stat line of 52/588/5. This trend alone would be enough to get me to think about any #2 WR facing CIN, though Jones is worth a consideration any week. Very talented receiver that has proven to be a threat in the end zone. All this for a mere 5600.

RB1: Jamaal Charles ($8800) KC@DEN

Despite being 9-0, KC continues to be thought of as the second best team in their division. I expect them to play at their best, with the focal point of their offense reaping the benefits. Charles worst game this year came last week against BUF for 12.6 pts. I expect him to bounce back from such an abysmal score into the 20s where he should be living. Oh and Denver’s run D is not that great. Its numbers are inflated because no one can run while being so far down. That is not going to happen against KC’s strong Defense.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5900) WAS@PHI

Yeah, Im back on the Reed train. My bad for getting off of it. Go read one of my other posts for all the details about why I love Reed.

QB: Josh McCown ($5400) BAL@CHI

I feel like I am taking a bit of a risk here, but I like the value too much. I dont think McCown is very talented, but hes placed in a system where production will just happen. He has two massive receivers on the outside between Marshall and Jeffrey, and a RB that can catch anything. I really do think any QB could have production in this system with Trestman in their ear. The rock-bottom price will let me really splurge in my next pick.

WR2: Calvin Johnson ($10200) DET@PIT

If you’re gonna splurge, Megatron is always a good option. The only CBs I would have any fear of covering him are Haden and Sherman, neither of which play for the Steelers.

RB2: Andre Ellington ($6000) ARI@JAC

This one could blow up in my face, but I’m willing to risk it for the potential upside. The Ellington / Mendenhall situation in Arizona continues to be one of the weirdest in all of the NFL. Ellington is explosive and better then Mendy in every way, yet Mendy remains the main back. I could easily see Ellington blowing up on any play he gets the ball, while Mendy’s best case scenario is around a 10 yard gain. Hoping Ellington has a big play and they ride the hot hand the rest of the game.

WR3: Wes Welker ($7400) KC@DEN

Welker has been super consistent all year long, except for last week. I see that as a random blip, and I like the matchup for Welker this week. KC will pressure Manning, forcing him into quick throws to Welker.

D/ST: Arizona Cardinals ($5700) ARI@JAC

Jaguars won their first game. Now they dont have to worry about being grouped in with the 2008 Lions. Time for them to go back to Sucking For Teddy Bridgewater.

K: Nick Novak ($5000) SD@MIA

Good offense against a team that is 3rd in pts allowed to kickers. Sure, why not.