Week 11: Nick’s Pickem

 

Tim and I both had a pretty good last week with regards to Pickem.  I went 10-4 and he went 9-4 with a no-pick on the Thursday game (GET UR PICKS IN SOONER).  I’m pretty sure he would have picked the Redskins as he had RG3 going in a lot of his fanduel lineups.  Im just going to assume it so that I can technically get the win for that week.  Alright, onto this week.

IND@TEN

In an ironic turn, it was me that was not able to get my picks in before Thursday. I told Tim to post that I wanted to pick the Titans, and here is probably what I would have posted.

“I dont believe the Titans are that great of a team, but just that they matchup really well with Indy. Indy has one single threat at Luck’s disposal and that is T.Y. Hilton. The only thing the titans do well is shutting down the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and I dont think Hilton is talented enough to overcome that. The titan’s biggest weakness is their ability to stop the run, but that wont matter cause Trent Richardson is a horrendous RB. He wont do anything significant. Offensively, the Titans should put up enough points to overcome whatever Indy is capable of doing.”

All of this would have been true, but because the Titans stink, they still lost. Its what I get.

NYJ@BUF

Weather is going to play a huge role in a few of these games with large storms occurring. Buffalo’s receiving core has already been torn to shreds coming into this game, but with high winds, I dont expect any of them to do anything. That leaves it to just the running game, which the Jets are the best at stopping. I dont see how Buffalo does anything offensively in this game. The Jets will find a way to score, because they always do. It wont be pretty, but I think the Jets win here.

BAL@CHI

Another weather-worn game, this will be determined by who proves to be worse, Ray Rice or the Chicago’s Run D. Ive seen both very closely this year as a Bears fan and as someone who drafted Ray Rice in my main fantasy league (probably shouldnt have admitted that). I am going to go with Chicago here. Sorry Ray.

CLE@CIN

I was really excited for this game cause of the whole anti-haden effect I wrote about in my Fanduel post. Marvin Jones was getting setup for a big one, but with the weather, I see this just turning into a really low scoring defensive battle. In the end, CIN will come out on top.

OAK@HOU

QBs getting their first start this year have done really really well. Still, Pryor was absolutely the best thing about the OAK offense, and I just dont see them making this work in anyway. HOU comes out on top.

ARI@JAC

Alright, JAC got in their one win. They can stop trying again. Seriously though, ARI is an underrated team.

WAS@PHI

PHI sucks at home for some unknown reason, so I am going to roll with the skins. I think this will be pretty high scoring, which means it wont be.

DET@PIT

Another game effected by weather, but less so then a few of the others. DET likes to throw away games they should win, but I dont see how they do that here. Their offense is too good and PIT’s is too bad.

ATL@TB

Ugh, what awful teams. In a scenario like this, I just roll with the home-dog.

SD@MIA

Not going to pick MIA for awhile. Just too much disarray.

SF@NO

Never picking against NO at home. Period.

GB@NYG

I think Tolzien surprises here and GB goes back to a slightly more balanced offense. No, hes not Rodgers, and no there will not be any QB controversy in GB. Still, Giants sell out to stop the run and GB changes things up a bit.

MIN@SEA

A seattle upset is bound to happen, but I am not going to believe its happening this game. The hawks are getting multiple offensive lineman back from injuries and Percy Harvin is starting for the first time, though very limited. Expecting a big offensive day against a defense that is practically a practice dummy.

KC@DEN

KC has had this game circled on their calenders for awhile. They will be playing at 100% while Manning might still be banged up a little. Expect KC to win, but in a close one.

NE@CAR

Love Carolina’s D and love that they beat SF on the road last week. Still, not betting against Hoodie coming out of a bye.

Week 10: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week was a decent week for Fanduel, though Tim’s team did end up besting mine with a score of 135.62 to 114.26. Lots of really random big games for players around the league, and unfortunately I did not guess them (find me the post on the internet that predicted the 7x TD game for nick foles… I dare you). Anyway, looking forward to this week, here are my picks (as always, in the order in which I am confident in them).

RB1: Reggie Bush ($8500) DET@CHI
I would normally not be the most confident in a RB that is not the #1 weapon on a team, but for anyone that has not been paying attention, CHI’s run D is pretty god awful. Posted this history last week, and its worth repeating again. Here are the running stats against chicago in the last four games.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3
GB – 29/199/2

Without any threat of throwing the ball, GB was able to average 6.9 YPC against an 8-man front. You just cant do that against DET with Megatron out there. To top this all off, last time these two teams met, Chicago’s Run D was much stronger and they gave up 25.3 game to Bush. I like everything about this.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6200) DEN@SD
What I said two weeks ago about Decker being a steal for 6500 continues to remain true. Here, it gets even better. He is now priced 300 less, facing a very weak secondary in SD. I know hes not the guy you want in DEN, but for this price, how can you turn it down?

RB2: Eddie Lacy ($6800) PHI@GB
The one thing I do not like about Fanduel is that they do not update their prices very well. With Rodgers down, everyone knows that GB is going to run the ball 30 times. Lacy will get his, and at the price of $6800, you cant turn it down. This will be the last week Lacy will be going at steal prices, and while I dont like the idea of him probably being owned in 50% of teams this week, Im not going to go against the grain just for the sake of it.

WR2: T.Y. Hilton ($6000) STL@IND
There were 4 3x TD games last week for WRs and this is the one I was most willing to chase the points on. The loss of Wayne means that IND’s production will have to go somewhere. Hilton just stands as the biggest threat on the team, and I dont think its even close. The #1 WR on a good team with a great QB… for $6000? Yup, taking it.

QB: Peyton Manning ($10600) DEN@SD
Ive saved enough at this point where I can now splurge on a player. I feel like Manning’s floor this week is 25 pts, with his ceiling being… well… whatever he decides. SD has a bad D and Manning is coming off of a bye. Lots of pts. Lots.

TE: Antonio Gates ($5600) DEN@SD
Yeah, Im giving a lot of action on this game. I faded on my favorite TE, Jordan Reed, this week in favor of Gates, just because I wanted some piece of the SD side of this game. I still think DEN’s defense is bad, and SD’s improved offensive line will be able to hold rivers up long enough to pass the ball and not get pinatad like RG3 was two weeks ago. I see Gates as being one of the benefactors of this (along with Woodhead and Allen). Should be a really high scoring game.

DEF: Tennessee Titans ($5800) JAC@TEN
Yeah, I got burned on them last week. This week is against JAC though. How can I not go back to this well? I am no longer 100% believer in TEN’s D, but the options this week were slim.

WR3: Kendall Wright ($5200) JAC@TEN
There were a lot of options to choose from to close out the team, including Mike Brown, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Denarius Moore, but I ended up settling on Wright. He has shown that with Locker at the helm, he is going to get targets. Against an awful JAC team, there is a good chance for some production here.

K: Steven Hauschka ($5300) SEA@ATL
Figure SEA wins this game, but finds ways to not get in the end zone. Hauschka has been a pretty consistent option this season.

Week 10: Nick’s Pickem and Recap

Last week was one of those weeks where you can’t really be upset about not predicting everything perfectly.  When Nick Foles matches Peyton Manning’s greatness from week 1, and Riley Cooper and Jerricho Cotchery are catching 3 TDs each, you are reminded of the nature of football.

For Pickem, I went 7-6 and Tim went 6-7.  Yay!  I won… I guess.  Lots of surprises including the Jets beating the Saints and the Bears beating the Packers.  Here are this week’s picks for me.  (One quick note about Fanduel this week.  I am going to wait and have my lineup not include Thursday’s game.  My final lineup did not include any players from that game, though I could see multiple people go off for big games.  For that reason, id rather just not include it).

WAS @ MIN

I think that the Vikings are a pretty inept team, but they have been riding Adrian Peterson as of late and I think they continue to do so in a game where the opposition cant stop him.

SEA @ ATL

Seattle has been pretty trashy lately, but has still managed to squeak out wins.  I see this game as the one where they breakout of their funk and start to actually look impressive again.

CIN @ BAL

Baltimore is tough at home, but its just not the same team anymore.  If they cant beat the Browns off the bye, I have to drop all other trends regarding Baltimore and evaluate the team as it is now.

DET @ CHI

Chicago can’t stop the run even when they are 100% sure a run is coming.  Here, they face a team where they cant focus on stopping the run because the opposing team has the best WR to ever play the game.  And he is being covered by Tillman who has not been 100%.  Im sure Chicago will score, just not enough.

PHI @ GB

Philly always seems to play better on the road and GB has become completely 1-dimensional as long as Seneca Wallace is behind center.  I, like everyone else in the world, think that Nick Fole’s W9 performance was a fluke.  Still think Philly can pull it out.

STL @ IND

The Rams are playing some interesting football lately.  Run the ball.  Ride Zac Stacy until there is no more tread on those tires.  They haven’t always been winning, but theyve been looking much better overall.  I think they end up winning this game barely.  IND tends to lose games they should win and win games they should lose.

OAK @ NYG

So apparently OAK is not as good as some people thought they were?  Guess it is our fault for believing in the Raiders again.  Between two bad teams, im just gonna go with the home team.

BUF @ PIT

I always seem to pick against the Bills, but not going to do it this week.  NE was able to run all over PIT last week, so I imagine much of the same will happen here with Spiller and Jackson both amassing a ton of yards.

JAC @ TEN

Not picking Jacksonville.  Ever.

CAR @ SF

I really like Carolina, but they have been facing some bad teams lately and this is their first real test in awhile.  SF at home, coming off a bye.  Thats enough for me.

HOU @ ARI

I like that the Texans basically have nothing to play for and will therefore have Keenum air it out the whole game.  Im sure he produces TDs, but also some INTs with ARI eventually winning out.  I wish I could know how many touches Andre Ellington would get in this game beforehand, cause I would be glad to pick based on that.  Over 15?  Cardinals all the way.  Under 5.  Houston.

DEN @ SD

I like San Diego, but its Denver off the bye.

DAL @ NO

Betting NO to win at home is one of the safest bets in the NFL.  I know that DAL is not a bad team, but its NO.  At home.

MIA @ TB

God I feel dirty for picking TB to win their first game.  I dont believe MIA is a bad team, but I just dont know how they remain focused for this one with everything that is going on with Incognito.  I never expected TB to go 0-16, so this is as good of a game as any to predict their first win.