Week 12: Nick’s Pickem

Lots of last minute posts coming today.  Going to be keeping things a bit brief, just to make sure everything gets in for the week.

NO@ATL

Picked NO earlier in the week, and am glad I did. It was closer then I thought it would be, but I guess that happens when NO goes on the road.

NYJ@BAL

I know the jets have this on-game-off-game trend going on this year, and they are currently due for a win, but I am thinking BAL breaks their streak and doesnt allow an embarassing loss on their home field.

PIT@CLE

I just think that CLE matches up really well with PIT. Haden can take out Brown, and CLE’s run D can slow down Bell. CLE’s offense has some question marks, but PIT’s D aint that great.

TB@DET

Guess this one should be chalked up as the upset of the week. TB has been playing well lately, leaning heavily on VJax. They’ve also finally come out and said they are going to let Revis be Revis and he will be shadowing Megatron up and down the field. All of this plus Detroit’s tendency to lose games they should win and them looking forward to next week against the Packers, its enough to have me go with the road dogs.

MIN@GB

GB is bad without rodgers, but I still think they are better then MIN. Green Bay can still stop the run and that is really all you have to do against the vikings.

JAC@HOU

Still not picking JAX.

SD@KC

I like San Diego, but they have a tendency this year to barely lose games. KC has a tendency to barely win games. Going with the angry-KC coming off of their first loss.

CAR@MIA

This is like feeding a grizzly bear a wounded deer. CAR D line against MIA O line, Im expecting an embarassing amount of sacks.

CHI@STL

I think that STL will run up and down on the Bears, but CHI will come out on top. Very evenly matched with a strong D against a strong O.

IND@ARI

Same as before, take away T.Y. Hilton (Patrick Peterson) and IND’s offense will struggle. That is going to be the case against an overall much better D then TEN was last week.

TEN@OAK

Between two awful teams, I go with the home team. OAK will ride Rashad Jennings for ~25 touches against TEN’s awful run D.

DAL@NYG

Giants are on a bit of a comeback. Guess this shouldnt really surprise anyone. Swear this team can NEVER be counted out. I know DAL is coming off a bye, but I only feel like that matters with a good coach. Not reall the case here.

DEN@NE

God, what a game. So many sub-plots to this with Welker returning and Peyton vs Brady. Im going with NE, but the real winner here will be anyone watching the game.

SF@WAS

SF is just the better team. RG3 gets crushed, goes into dumbass mode where he throws a bunch of picks, and SF runs away with it.

 

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Week 12 : Nick’s Thursday Thoughts

I will be doing a more in-depth recap of last week, as well as my full picks and fanduel lineup over the next few days.  For now, I wanted to make sure to get my relevant thoughts in for tonight’s game.

NO@ATL

NO does not play as well on the road, but I still dont see them losing the decrepit falcons.  Divisional games are usually closer then they should be, but I have faith in Brees and company to put up pts.

 

Fanduel Relevant Players

Kenny Stills ($4500)

Its very hard to predict who is going to get action on a Saints team, but when Brees is on, TDs will be had.  For a $4500 price, Ill gladly take a stake in this when I need a low-priced WR.

Drew Brees ($11000)

I mentioned before that QBs playing ATL typically see some of their best games.  That is still true, though Brees statline is much more impressive at home then it is away (average of 27.8 fantasy points at home vs 18.23 in road games.  The $11000 tag is massive though, so I am including in one of my side lineups, but not my main one.  That is reserved for a low-priced QB facing an inept defense.

Pierre Thomas ($5800)

ATL’s pass defense is horrible, but so is their run D.  With Sproles possibly out for this game, Pierre Thomas could be in for a huge workload against a bad D on a good offense.  There are a lot of good RB options this week, but I am not going to pass on this opportunity.  Thomas is in my main lineup if Sproles ends up inactive for this game.  If not, hes still a good play, though not a great one like some others.

Week 11: Nick’s Pickem

 

Tim and I both had a pretty good last week with regards to Pickem.  I went 10-4 and he went 9-4 with a no-pick on the Thursday game (GET UR PICKS IN SOONER).  I’m pretty sure he would have picked the Redskins as he had RG3 going in a lot of his fanduel lineups.  Im just going to assume it so that I can technically get the win for that week.  Alright, onto this week.

IND@TEN

In an ironic turn, it was me that was not able to get my picks in before Thursday. I told Tim to post that I wanted to pick the Titans, and here is probably what I would have posted.

“I dont believe the Titans are that great of a team, but just that they matchup really well with Indy. Indy has one single threat at Luck’s disposal and that is T.Y. Hilton. The only thing the titans do well is shutting down the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and I dont think Hilton is talented enough to overcome that. The titan’s biggest weakness is their ability to stop the run, but that wont matter cause Trent Richardson is a horrendous RB. He wont do anything significant. Offensively, the Titans should put up enough points to overcome whatever Indy is capable of doing.”

All of this would have been true, but because the Titans stink, they still lost. Its what I get.

NYJ@BUF

Weather is going to play a huge role in a few of these games with large storms occurring. Buffalo’s receiving core has already been torn to shreds coming into this game, but with high winds, I dont expect any of them to do anything. That leaves it to just the running game, which the Jets are the best at stopping. I dont see how Buffalo does anything offensively in this game. The Jets will find a way to score, because they always do. It wont be pretty, but I think the Jets win here.

BAL@CHI

Another weather-worn game, this will be determined by who proves to be worse, Ray Rice or the Chicago’s Run D. Ive seen both very closely this year as a Bears fan and as someone who drafted Ray Rice in my main fantasy league (probably shouldnt have admitted that). I am going to go with Chicago here. Sorry Ray.

CLE@CIN

I was really excited for this game cause of the whole anti-haden effect I wrote about in my Fanduel post. Marvin Jones was getting setup for a big one, but with the weather, I see this just turning into a really low scoring defensive battle. In the end, CIN will come out on top.

OAK@HOU

QBs getting their first start this year have done really really well. Still, Pryor was absolutely the best thing about the OAK offense, and I just dont see them making this work in anyway. HOU comes out on top.

ARI@JAC

Alright, JAC got in their one win. They can stop trying again. Seriously though, ARI is an underrated team.

WAS@PHI

PHI sucks at home for some unknown reason, so I am going to roll with the skins. I think this will be pretty high scoring, which means it wont be.

DET@PIT

Another game effected by weather, but less so then a few of the others. DET likes to throw away games they should win, but I dont see how they do that here. Their offense is too good and PIT’s is too bad.

ATL@TB

Ugh, what awful teams. In a scenario like this, I just roll with the home-dog.

SD@MIA

Not going to pick MIA for awhile. Just too much disarray.

SF@NO

Never picking against NO at home. Period.

GB@NYG

I think Tolzien surprises here and GB goes back to a slightly more balanced offense. No, hes not Rodgers, and no there will not be any QB controversy in GB. Still, Giants sell out to stop the run and GB changes things up a bit.

MIN@SEA

A seattle upset is bound to happen, but I am not going to believe its happening this game. The hawks are getting multiple offensive lineman back from injuries and Percy Harvin is starting for the first time, though very limited. Expecting a big offensive day against a defense that is practically a practice dummy.

KC@DEN

KC has had this game circled on their calenders for awhile. They will be playing at 100% while Manning might still be banged up a little. Expect KC to win, but in a close one.

NE@CAR

Love Carolina’s D and love that they beat SF on the road last week. Still, not betting against Hoodie coming out of a bye.

Week 10: Nick’s Pickem and Recap

Last week was one of those weeks where you can’t really be upset about not predicting everything perfectly.  When Nick Foles matches Peyton Manning’s greatness from week 1, and Riley Cooper and Jerricho Cotchery are catching 3 TDs each, you are reminded of the nature of football.

For Pickem, I went 7-6 and Tim went 6-7.  Yay!  I won… I guess.  Lots of surprises including the Jets beating the Saints and the Bears beating the Packers.  Here are this week’s picks for me.  (One quick note about Fanduel this week.  I am going to wait and have my lineup not include Thursday’s game.  My final lineup did not include any players from that game, though I could see multiple people go off for big games.  For that reason, id rather just not include it).

WAS @ MIN

I think that the Vikings are a pretty inept team, but they have been riding Adrian Peterson as of late and I think they continue to do so in a game where the opposition cant stop him.

SEA @ ATL

Seattle has been pretty trashy lately, but has still managed to squeak out wins.  I see this game as the one where they breakout of their funk and start to actually look impressive again.

CIN @ BAL

Baltimore is tough at home, but its just not the same team anymore.  If they cant beat the Browns off the bye, I have to drop all other trends regarding Baltimore and evaluate the team as it is now.

DET @ CHI

Chicago can’t stop the run even when they are 100% sure a run is coming.  Here, they face a team where they cant focus on stopping the run because the opposing team has the best WR to ever play the game.  And he is being covered by Tillman who has not been 100%.  Im sure Chicago will score, just not enough.

PHI @ GB

Philly always seems to play better on the road and GB has become completely 1-dimensional as long as Seneca Wallace is behind center.  I, like everyone else in the world, think that Nick Fole’s W9 performance was a fluke.  Still think Philly can pull it out.

STL @ IND

The Rams are playing some interesting football lately.  Run the ball.  Ride Zac Stacy until there is no more tread on those tires.  They haven’t always been winning, but theyve been looking much better overall.  I think they end up winning this game barely.  IND tends to lose games they should win and win games they should lose.

OAK @ NYG

So apparently OAK is not as good as some people thought they were?  Guess it is our fault for believing in the Raiders again.  Between two bad teams, im just gonna go with the home team.

BUF @ PIT

I always seem to pick against the Bills, but not going to do it this week.  NE was able to run all over PIT last week, so I imagine much of the same will happen here with Spiller and Jackson both amassing a ton of yards.

JAC @ TEN

Not picking Jacksonville.  Ever.

CAR @ SF

I really like Carolina, but they have been facing some bad teams lately and this is their first real test in awhile.  SF at home, coming off a bye.  Thats enough for me.

HOU @ ARI

I like that the Texans basically have nothing to play for and will therefore have Keenum air it out the whole game.  Im sure he produces TDs, but also some INTs with ARI eventually winning out.  I wish I could know how many touches Andre Ellington would get in this game beforehand, cause I would be glad to pick based on that.  Over 15?  Cardinals all the way.  Under 5.  Houston.

DEN @ SD

I like San Diego, but its Denver off the bye.

DAL @ NO

Betting NO to win at home is one of the safest bets in the NFL.  I know that DAL is not a bad team, but its NO.  At home.

MIA @ TB

God I feel dirty for picking TB to win their first game.  I dont believe MIA is a bad team, but I just dont know how they remain focused for this one with everything that is going on with Incognito.  I never expected TB to go 0-16, so this is as good of a game as any to predict their first win.

Week 9: Pickem and Recap of Last Week

Hey everyone!

Sorry for the few days absence.  Should have everything for w9 coming up.  First, a recap of a conversation I had earlier in the week with Tim.

Me: “I redeemed myself this week!  Went 10-2 this week in Pickem!”

Tim: “I went 11-1”

Me: “DAMNIT!”

Of course I improve this week only to still fall a game short.  I liked ARZ, but still doubted them.  I also went with the home-dog in a game of two bad teams.  Apparently, I underestimated just how bad PHI is when their offense struggles.  Just nothing to show for the last couple of weeks.  Alright, so moving on here are this week’s picks.

CIN@MIA

CIN is just clicking on all levels and MIA is #1 in sacks allowed.  Not going to be an easy night for the phins.
ATL@CAR

ATL has been an easy ride for all QBs theyve faced, and now they are going on the road against a red hot cam newton.  To make matters worse, Carolina’s D is no joke.
MIN@DAL

MIN is awful.  Having Adrian Peterson on your team is like lowering the difficulty setting to easy, and still losing.  DAL is the same team as theyve always been, and will finish probably finish the season around 9-7.  I expect this game to be one of the 9.
NO@NYJ

So it looks like I was right about NO coming out of their bye week stomping the opposition.  I was completely wrong in how they were going to do it, but thats another story for another post.  The jets can do one thing really really well and that is stop the run.  Shame it wont matter in this contest cause they are facing drew brees.
TEN@STL

TEN is one of those sneaky teams that has an actual chance at a playoff birth.  Coming out of a bye week, I expect them to stomp STL who is just coming off of a very disappointing last second loss against a divisional rival.
KC@BUF

KC is not going 16-0 this season, but I also don’t think they are losing to BUF.
SD@WAS

So apparently all those “RG3 IS BACK!” thoughts are distant history, right?  Again, another story for another post.  SD has been playing smart football lately, and I personally think Mike McCoy should at least be mentioned in the coach of the year discussions (yeah, I know its going to Reid, but like I said, the mention should be there).  Just look what he has done with Rivers, Woodhead, and Matthews.  Coming out of a bye, I always believe in coaching, and against a WAS team riddled with weaknesses, I see SD coming out on top.
PHI@OAK

Poor Chip Kelly.  Apparently no one told him that Vick is not capable of playing a whole season, and an offense revolving around him is a bad idea.  Without Vick, this offense has no purpose.  That just leaves an awful defense.  Weird to pick OAK with confidence, but that is what I am doing here.
TB@SEA

Schiano fired yet?  No?  Alright, I’ll ask again next week.
BAL@CLE

I am a huge believer that CLE is an underrated team, but again… I am going with good coaching coming out of a bye.  I am hoping Ray Rice visited some Tibet monk to try and regain his running essence.
PIT@NE

I think that PIT will run all over NE in this one, but NE will find a way to win… like they always do.
IND@HOU

Not a huge Indy fan after the loss of Reggie Wayne, but im less of a HOU fan.  Foster’s status for this game is unsure, and that leaves their offense with much to be desired.
CHI@GB

Chicago Bears homer here.  This one is going to be ugly.  There are no words to describe how bad our run D is, and the only guy that has been doing anything all season (Lance Briggs) will be out for the first time.  I expect Lacy to make his rookie of the year claims on Monday night.

Week 8 : Sunday and Monday Pickem

Redemption Time!  Had just the worst week last week, so now its time to set it right.  Here goes!

DAL@DET

So I actually see these two teams as being really even, with the difference maker here being home field advantage.  Dallas’ D has been playing well yesterday, though I don’t think they have the weapons to stop Detroit on the road when Detroit is fully healthy.  That last word being the key word there.  Megatron looked healthy enough last week when he crushed the competition, but there have been reports of Reggie Bush also suffered an injury in practice, though it is looking like he will play.  I have DET squeaking out a win here.

SF@JAC

SF is apparently a good team.  JAX is apparently a bad one.  I really shouldn’t have to explain this one.

CLE@KC

If CLE had Hoyer behind QB, I might actually make the argument that they have a chance.  With Jason Campbell back there, they are primed for defeat.  The one interesting thing about this game to me is Haden’s nullification.  One of the best things about this defense is Haden’s ability to shut down the opposing team’s #1 receiver.  What the hell is he going to do this game?  Shut down Dwayne Bowe?  I imagine Bowe laughing at Haden all game while on the line of scrimmage as Haden watches from out wide as Jamaal Charles tears apart his team.

MIA@NE

Okay, Gronk had his practice run, now its time for the real thing.  MIA just isnt that good and NE should roll them.

BUF@NO

While BUF is not a bad team, NO should be unstoppable this week.  Suffered their first loss two weeks ago and then went into a bye week.  Two weeks to stew in their own defeat and formulate a game-plan for BUF when they play them at home.  I don’t see any scenario where NO loses this week at home, regardless of who they were facing.

NYG@PHI

Two evenly bad teams, I am going to go with the homer again.  I do think Vick being back is a plus for the Eagles, though they will almost assuredly lose the game if Barkley has to step in at QB if Vick gets injured.

NYJ@CIN

Still dont believe in the Jets.  Starting to believe in the Bengals.

PIT@OAK

This is a tough one.  OAK is an interesting team for the first time in years and they are coming off a bye at home.  I think OAK barely edges this one out.

ATL@ARI

Interesting stat.  Every time a team has played SEA this year, that team has lost the following week.  Apparently, the defense runs you ragged.  To make matters even worse, the last three defenses ARI has played have been CAR, SF, and SEA.  Figure it will be a week removed from that schedule before they can fully recover.  Also, ARI is a dumb team that knows how to lose games, while ATL is still convinced they can make the playoffs and will therefore be fighting with everything they have.

 

WAS@DEN

Nothing cures a football hangover like the WAS D.  Peyton Manning and company should take advantage of one of the worst Ds in football.  I expect a shootout here with the final score being closer then most think, though DEN winning in the end.

GB@MIN

MIN made the argument for them actually being the worst team in the league despite having a win and having one of the best players in football on their team.  Ponder is the new QB over that other guy, so that at least gives them a chance.  Oh wait, no it doesnt cause they are playing GB.  GB will destroy them and look good doing it.

 

SEA@STL

If you are starting your first game as QB, the last thing I would want would be to stare down the secondary of SEA.  STL needs about 3-4 special teams TDs for any chance to win this.  Not happening.