Week 12: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Again, last minute picks, so apologies for not getting these out when they are actually useful.  Like I had mentioned in my previous Thursday post, I rolled with Pierre Thomas in my main lineup, so this is all Thursday lineups anyway.

QB: Eli Manning ($6300) DAL@NYG
RB1: Zac Stacy ($7400) CHI@STL
RB2: Pierre Thomas ($5800) NO@ATL
WR1: Vincent Jackson ($8000) TB@DET
WR2: Andre Johnson ($7700) JAC@HOU
WR3: Eric Decker ($5800) DEN@NE
TE: Rob Gronkowski ($8200) DEN@NE
K: David Akers ($5000) TB@DET
D/ST: Carolina Panthers ($5700) CAR@MIA

Comments

Zac Stacy should be the #1 play for everyone this week.  Just ridiculous he is only $7400 against the Chicago D.  VJax and Andre Johnson have both been beasts lately.  Decker is a deal, and Gronk is a monster.  Carolina D should be good for 6+ sacks.

Week 12 : Nick’s Thursday Thoughts

I will be doing a more in-depth recap of last week, as well as my full picks and fanduel lineup over the next few days.  For now, I wanted to make sure to get my relevant thoughts in for tonight’s game.

NO@ATL

NO does not play as well on the road, but I still dont see them losing the decrepit falcons.  Divisional games are usually closer then they should be, but I have faith in Brees and company to put up pts.

 

Fanduel Relevant Players

Kenny Stills ($4500)

Its very hard to predict who is going to get action on a Saints team, but when Brees is on, TDs will be had.  For a $4500 price, Ill gladly take a stake in this when I need a low-priced WR.

Drew Brees ($11000)

I mentioned before that QBs playing ATL typically see some of their best games.  That is still true, though Brees statline is much more impressive at home then it is away (average of 27.8 fantasy points at home vs 18.23 in road games.  The $11000 tag is massive though, so I am including in one of my side lineups, but not my main one.  That is reserved for a low-priced QB facing an inept defense.

Pierre Thomas ($5800)

ATL’s pass defense is horrible, but so is their run D.  With Sproles possibly out for this game, Pierre Thomas could be in for a huge workload against a bad D on a good offense.  There are a lot of good RB options this week, but I am not going to pass on this opportunity.  Thomas is in my main lineup if Sproles ends up inactive for this game.  If not, hes still a good play, though not a great one like some others.

Week 11: How the Weather Impacted My Fanduel Lineup

Like I mentioned in the pickem, there are a few games this week that are going to be heavily effected by weather. They are.

BAL@CHI
CLE@CIN
NYJ@BUF
DET@PIT (lesser extent)

With that in mind, I made a few changes to my fanduel lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/11/14/week-11-nicks-fanduel-lineup/).

Out: Josh McCown ($5400)
In: Case Keenum ($6600)

I really did want to ride with McCown this week, but this wind here in Chicago is ridiculous and I just dont see him having a great day because of that. HOU has been throwing like crazy lately, and I love the matchup against OAK. Placing Keenum in still retains the value pick, but other changes will have to be made.

Out: Calvin Johnson ($10200)
In: Andre Johnson ($7500)

Yeah, Calvin will still probably have a great game, cause no CB or act of god can stop him, but I needed to make up some money somewhere. Decided to go with the most expensive option on the team that now gets a slight downgrade because of potential weather. Andre Johnson has been making the most out of every pass from Keenum, and I always like to double up with WR+QB combinations.

Out: Marvin Jones ($5600)
In: Vincent Jackson ($7100)

This one hurts the most. I really did think that Jones was in for a monster game this week, but with the weather, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Had a little leftover funds from the Johnson downgrade, so I upgraded here to Vincent Jackson. ATL has a horrendous secondary and TB has said they want to feed the ball to VJAX more. Sounds good to me.

Week 11: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Last week in fanduel was decent, as I was able to break even with a minimum number of games. I felt like my predictions were right on, but none of my players ended up seeing the end zone. Lacy, Bush, Decker, Hilton, Wright, and Gates averaged for 86.5 yards, but not a single TD between them. Thank god for Peyton and my awesome kicker prediction with Steven Hauschka! The most important thing to take away from all of this though is that I crushed tim with a score of 118 to 77.78. Its okay Tim. I’m sure Pryor and Dez will have that breakout game as soon as you stop playing them. Anyway, onto next week.

As always, in order of how much I like them.

WR1: Marvin Jones ($5600) CLE@CIN

One of the more interesting trends in fantasy football revolves around the CLE Cornerback, Joe Haden. As an absolutely dominant CB, Haden has been able to shut down some of the league’s best receivers. That has led to some really nice production from the #2s on the team. Through the first nine weeks, Haden’s coverage has led to the #1s on the opposing teams accumulating the final stat line: 31/313/1. The #2s on the team have posted a stat line of 52/588/5. This trend alone would be enough to get me to think about any #2 WR facing CIN, though Jones is worth a consideration any week. Very talented receiver that has proven to be a threat in the end zone. All this for a mere 5600.

RB1: Jamaal Charles ($8800) KC@DEN

Despite being 9-0, KC continues to be thought of as the second best team in their division. I expect them to play at their best, with the focal point of their offense reaping the benefits. Charles worst game this year came last week against BUF for 12.6 pts. I expect him to bounce back from such an abysmal score into the 20s where he should be living. Oh and Denver’s run D is not that great. Its numbers are inflated because no one can run while being so far down. That is not going to happen against KC’s strong Defense.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5900) WAS@PHI

Yeah, Im back on the Reed train. My bad for getting off of it. Go read one of my other posts for all the details about why I love Reed.

QB: Josh McCown ($5400) BAL@CHI

I feel like I am taking a bit of a risk here, but I like the value too much. I dont think McCown is very talented, but hes placed in a system where production will just happen. He has two massive receivers on the outside between Marshall and Jeffrey, and a RB that can catch anything. I really do think any QB could have production in this system with Trestman in their ear. The rock-bottom price will let me really splurge in my next pick.

WR2: Calvin Johnson ($10200) DET@PIT

If you’re gonna splurge, Megatron is always a good option. The only CBs I would have any fear of covering him are Haden and Sherman, neither of which play for the Steelers.

RB2: Andre Ellington ($6000) ARI@JAC

This one could blow up in my face, but I’m willing to risk it for the potential upside. The Ellington / Mendenhall situation in Arizona continues to be one of the weirdest in all of the NFL. Ellington is explosive and better then Mendy in every way, yet Mendy remains the main back. I could easily see Ellington blowing up on any play he gets the ball, while Mendy’s best case scenario is around a 10 yard gain. Hoping Ellington has a big play and they ride the hot hand the rest of the game.

WR3: Wes Welker ($7400) KC@DEN

Welker has been super consistent all year long, except for last week. I see that as a random blip, and I like the matchup for Welker this week. KC will pressure Manning, forcing him into quick throws to Welker.

D/ST: Arizona Cardinals ($5700) ARI@JAC

Jaguars won their first game. Now they dont have to worry about being grouped in with the 2008 Lions. Time for them to go back to Sucking For Teddy Bridgewater.

K: Nick Novak ($5000) SD@MIA

Good offense against a team that is 3rd in pts allowed to kickers. Sure, why not.

Week 10: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week was a decent week for Fanduel, though Tim’s team did end up besting mine with a score of 135.62 to 114.26. Lots of really random big games for players around the league, and unfortunately I did not guess them (find me the post on the internet that predicted the 7x TD game for nick foles… I dare you). Anyway, looking forward to this week, here are my picks (as always, in the order in which I am confident in them).

RB1: Reggie Bush ($8500) DET@CHI
I would normally not be the most confident in a RB that is not the #1 weapon on a team, but for anyone that has not been paying attention, CHI’s run D is pretty god awful. Posted this history last week, and its worth repeating again. Here are the running stats against chicago in the last four games.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3
GB – 29/199/2

Without any threat of throwing the ball, GB was able to average 6.9 YPC against an 8-man front. You just cant do that against DET with Megatron out there. To top this all off, last time these two teams met, Chicago’s Run D was much stronger and they gave up 25.3 game to Bush. I like everything about this.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6200) DEN@SD
What I said two weeks ago about Decker being a steal for 6500 continues to remain true. Here, it gets even better. He is now priced 300 less, facing a very weak secondary in SD. I know hes not the guy you want in DEN, but for this price, how can you turn it down?

RB2: Eddie Lacy ($6800) PHI@GB
The one thing I do not like about Fanduel is that they do not update their prices very well. With Rodgers down, everyone knows that GB is going to run the ball 30 times. Lacy will get his, and at the price of $6800, you cant turn it down. This will be the last week Lacy will be going at steal prices, and while I dont like the idea of him probably being owned in 50% of teams this week, Im not going to go against the grain just for the sake of it.

WR2: T.Y. Hilton ($6000) STL@IND
There were 4 3x TD games last week for WRs and this is the one I was most willing to chase the points on. The loss of Wayne means that IND’s production will have to go somewhere. Hilton just stands as the biggest threat on the team, and I dont think its even close. The #1 WR on a good team with a great QB… for $6000? Yup, taking it.

QB: Peyton Manning ($10600) DEN@SD
Ive saved enough at this point where I can now splurge on a player. I feel like Manning’s floor this week is 25 pts, with his ceiling being… well… whatever he decides. SD has a bad D and Manning is coming off of a bye. Lots of pts. Lots.

TE: Antonio Gates ($5600) DEN@SD
Yeah, Im giving a lot of action on this game. I faded on my favorite TE, Jordan Reed, this week in favor of Gates, just because I wanted some piece of the SD side of this game. I still think DEN’s defense is bad, and SD’s improved offensive line will be able to hold rivers up long enough to pass the ball and not get pinatad like RG3 was two weeks ago. I see Gates as being one of the benefactors of this (along with Woodhead and Allen). Should be a really high scoring game.

DEF: Tennessee Titans ($5800) JAC@TEN
Yeah, I got burned on them last week. This week is against JAC though. How can I not go back to this well? I am no longer 100% believer in TEN’s D, but the options this week were slim.

WR3: Kendall Wright ($5200) JAC@TEN
There were a lot of options to choose from to close out the team, including Mike Brown, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Denarius Moore, but I ended up settling on Wright. He has shown that with Locker at the helm, he is going to get targets. Against an awful JAC team, there is a good chance for some production here.

K: Steven Hauschka ($5300) SEA@ATL
Figure SEA wins this game, but finds ways to not get in the end zone. Hauschka has been a pretty consistent option this season.

Week 9 : Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week had its ups-and-downs.  If you only read my initial fanduel post last week and not the sunday morning follow-up, it was absolutely more downs.  Heres a quick recap of some of the highs and lows.

Hit:  Andre Ellington.  Last minute change based on Mendenhall being out.  Ellington proved his talent by flourishing when he was given a decent workload.  His 80-yd TD run was a thing of beauty.  I still dont know if Arians is going to realize what he has and do the right thing, so be careful on how much faith you have in Ellington going forward.

Miss:  RG3.  Oh what a miss.  Looking back on it, I would say here is the lesson to be learned.  RG3 excels best when his team can run the ball.  Forcing him to be the playmaker just hasnt worked this season like it did last.

Hit: Jordy Nelson.  The most consistent WR this season had a great game against a bad Defense.  Yeah, wasnt the last time Im picking him.

Miss:  Marshawn Lynch.  Apparently, Lynch’s actions pissed off his coaching staff.  Enough to the point where they decided to not lean on him when they should have.  I expect Lynch to bounce back, though my confidence is shaken.

Miss:  Sproles / Colston.  I accurately predicted that NO would do awesome.  I inaccurately predicted how it was going to be done.  Still cant believe Sproles got a zero, but hopefully you switched him out sunday morning like suggested.

Alright, moving onto to next week.  Here are my initial thoughts.  Again, in order of what I am most confident in.

RB1: Eddie Lacy ($6800) CHI@GB

I really do not understand how Lacy can only be $6800 given the last few weeks and the matchup.  GB has been running more then ever, with Lacy being the head guy.  The last three weeks he has brought in the following fantasy numbers 13, 19.3, 19.2.  This week, he faces an abysmal Chicago Run D that only got worse with the loss of defensive leader Lance Briggs.  Briggs has not only been the playmaker, but has been the one making the adjustments.  Chicago’s D looks to only get worse and that is bad.  Here are the rushing stats they have given up the last three weeks.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3

Anyone can run on CHI right now, and Lacy is very capable of doing so.  Start him with confidence for his ridiculously cheap price.

WR1: Denarius Moore ($4900) PHI@OAK

I hate going back to someone that burned me in the past, but there is just too much value here to pass up.  Moore had a bad last week against a tough pass D in a conservative gameplan.  This week, he faces the team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs.  As the #1 receiver for his team, and averaging 11.4 FPPG, I cannot pass up the $4900 price tag.

TE:  Jordan Reed ($5600) SD@WAS

If you have been watching the WAS games lately, you will know why I plan on riding Jordan Reed until he gets injured or until his price tag goes up to $6500 or so.  He has become RG3s favorite target, and while that didnt mean many TDs last week, it still meant a line of 8/90/0 for Reed.  Upon dropping two passes, Reed was apparently distraught the whole week and forced himself to catch 500 balls from a football chucker.

QB:  Cam Newton ($8900) ATL@CAR

While I really like some of the cheaper options this week including Locker and Pryor, I already included enough value to allow myself to splurge a bit.  Cam Newton is the definition of a boom or bust player, and the matchup is too good to ignore.  It can be hard to predict when Cam Newton will go off, but when he does, its worth it.  This week, he faces an ATL D that is worse then they appear.  Here is their history this season in terms of pts allowed to QBs.

Drew Brees 20.48 #4 Week
Sam Bradford 26.58 #1 Week
Ryan Tannehill 14.14 #4 Week
Tom Brady 20.44 #1 Week
Geno Smith 22.06 #3 Week
Mike Glennon 17.54 #2 Week
Carson Palmer 13.78 #3 Week

So pretty much everyone that faces ATL has one of their best weeks against them.  The only reason ATL isnt near the top of the pts allowed list is because of the quality of QBs they have faced.  Should be a good chance for Cam Newton to go off.

WR2:  Jordy Nelson ($7800) CHI@GB

This goes against my rule of no WR/RB combinations, but I love both this week enough to roll the dice.  Nelson is the most consistent WR this year, and he is still available for under 8k.  Against an awful defense, while the rest of the main WR core is still in question.  Guaranteed points with a huge upside.  Whats not to like?

RB2:  Le’Veon Bell ($7000) PIT@NE

I originally went for Danny Woodhead in this slot, but changed to Bell given the extra money.  Bell has been running well since coming back from injury and he faces a defense that has struggled greatly against the run since losing Wilfork.  Bell should be good for 60 yards and a TD with a chance at multiple TDs if the situation is right.

WR3:  AJ Green ($8700) CIN@MIA

With enough leftover funds, I had the choice between AJ and Dez.  Both are absolute studs, and I don’t think I would be crazy for picking either.  This was more of a pick against Dez then it was a pick for AJ.  Dez has two interesting trends going into this game.  Trend #1 involves a number 1 receiver complaining about his role in an offense and then blowing up the next week.  This year, it started with Wallace in MIA, and then later in CHI with Marshall.  Always gotta keep the #1 receiver happy.  The other trend is that when DAL wins a game, Dez has a bad-to-mediocre game.  When Dez loses a game, he has a great fantasy week.  I dont see any chance at MIN beating DAL, so I expect this to be a loss and therefore Dez to just not be a big part of their offensive plan.  For that reason, I’m going with the other high-priced stud receiver.

D/ST:  Tennessee Titans ($5200) TEN@STL

I officially do not believe in the KC D anymore.  After being burned the last two weeks, I decided to go for a more economical option based on matchup.  TEN is in the fight for a playoff shot, and coming off of a bye, I expect them to play strong against a STL team that will be drained after a tough last second loss.  To make matters worse, the only positive that can be said regarding STL’s offense has been Zac Stacy.  He is now injured.  I don’t see how STL is capable of doing anything here.

K:  Nick Novak ($5000) SD@WAS

WAS has a bad D.  SD can move the ball.  Yeah, that’s all I got.

Week 8 : Nick’s Fanduel Update

Not always going to post these, but there is one particular development this morning that alters my fanduel lineup.

ARI RB Rashad Mendenhall was out of practice all week and has officially been ruled out of today’s game.  That puts rookie RB Andre Ellington into the spotlight against Atlanta.  While I still do not trust ARI to ride Ellington as much as they should, here is a very talented starting RB that you can slot into your lineup for a mere $5200.  That’s a steal that I have to take advantage of.  From my previously posted lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/10/24/week-8-nicks-fanduel-lineup/), I am dropping Sproles for Ellington, giving me a whopping $1400 additional to play with.  Here is what I am doing with it.

Upgrading KC D to SEA D ($100)

Been wanting to do this because of the switch from Wheeden, but could never come up with the $100.  This was the first option I jumped to.

Upgrading Jordan Reed to Tony Gonzalez ($200)

I am not 100% sold on this being an upgrade, but I did want to create a bit of variety in my lineups because Reed is slotted in the majority of my Thursday lineups.  This is as best-case-scenario to play Gonz that you are going to see all season with ARI being the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to TEs.  If Gonz cant break double digits in this game, he wont be rosterable in fanduel for the rest of the season IMO.

Upgrading Denarius Moore to Marques Colston ($1000)

Graham is officially ACTIVE for this game, though I expect him to be very limited.  No reason for them to push the guy against what should be a layup.  I still want a stake in this game as NO should roll Buffalo.  Colston hasnt been himself all season, but he has that boom/bust potential as high as anyone in the league.  Rolling the dice here and hoping for his breakout game.

Upgrading Henery to Akers ($100)

Had a $100 left.  Guess ill update my kicker to a Akers in what should be a high scoring game.