Week 12: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Again, last minute picks, so apologies for not getting these out when they are actually useful.  Like I had mentioned in my previous Thursday post, I rolled with Pierre Thomas in my main lineup, so this is all Thursday lineups anyway.

QB: Eli Manning ($6300) DAL@NYG
RB1: Zac Stacy ($7400) CHI@STL
RB2: Pierre Thomas ($5800) NO@ATL
WR1: Vincent Jackson ($8000) TB@DET
WR2: Andre Johnson ($7700) JAC@HOU
WR3: Eric Decker ($5800) DEN@NE
TE: Rob Gronkowski ($8200) DEN@NE
K: David Akers ($5000) TB@DET
D/ST: Carolina Panthers ($5700) CAR@MIA

Comments

Zac Stacy should be the #1 play for everyone this week.  Just ridiculous he is only $7400 against the Chicago D.  VJax and Andre Johnson have both been beasts lately.  Decker is a deal, and Gronk is a monster.  Carolina D should be good for 6+ sacks.

Week 12: Nick’s Pickem

Lots of last minute posts coming today.  Going to be keeping things a bit brief, just to make sure everything gets in for the week.

NO@ATL

Picked NO earlier in the week, and am glad I did. It was closer then I thought it would be, but I guess that happens when NO goes on the road.

NYJ@BAL

I know the jets have this on-game-off-game trend going on this year, and they are currently due for a win, but I am thinking BAL breaks their streak and doesnt allow an embarassing loss on their home field.

PIT@CLE

I just think that CLE matches up really well with PIT. Haden can take out Brown, and CLE’s run D can slow down Bell. CLE’s offense has some question marks, but PIT’s D aint that great.

TB@DET

Guess this one should be chalked up as the upset of the week. TB has been playing well lately, leaning heavily on VJax. They’ve also finally come out and said they are going to let Revis be Revis and he will be shadowing Megatron up and down the field. All of this plus Detroit’s tendency to lose games they should win and them looking forward to next week against the Packers, its enough to have me go with the road dogs.

MIN@GB

GB is bad without rodgers, but I still think they are better then MIN. Green Bay can still stop the run and that is really all you have to do against the vikings.

JAC@HOU

Still not picking JAX.

SD@KC

I like San Diego, but they have a tendency this year to barely lose games. KC has a tendency to barely win games. Going with the angry-KC coming off of their first loss.

CAR@MIA

This is like feeding a grizzly bear a wounded deer. CAR D line against MIA O line, Im expecting an embarassing amount of sacks.

CHI@STL

I think that STL will run up and down on the Bears, but CHI will come out on top. Very evenly matched with a strong D against a strong O.

IND@ARI

Same as before, take away T.Y. Hilton (Patrick Peterson) and IND’s offense will struggle. That is going to be the case against an overall much better D then TEN was last week.

TEN@OAK

Between two awful teams, I go with the home team. OAK will ride Rashad Jennings for ~25 touches against TEN’s awful run D.

DAL@NYG

Giants are on a bit of a comeback. Guess this shouldnt really surprise anyone. Swear this team can NEVER be counted out. I know DAL is coming off a bye, but I only feel like that matters with a good coach. Not reall the case here.

DEN@NE

God, what a game. So many sub-plots to this with Welker returning and Peyton vs Brady. Im going with NE, but the real winner here will be anyone watching the game.

SF@WAS

SF is just the better team. RG3 gets crushed, goes into dumbass mode where he throws a bunch of picks, and SF runs away with it.

 

Week 12 : Nick’s Thursday Thoughts

I will be doing a more in-depth recap of last week, as well as my full picks and fanduel lineup over the next few days.  For now, I wanted to make sure to get my relevant thoughts in for tonight’s game.

NO@ATL

NO does not play as well on the road, but I still dont see them losing the decrepit falcons.  Divisional games are usually closer then they should be, but I have faith in Brees and company to put up pts.

 

Fanduel Relevant Players

Kenny Stills ($4500)

Its very hard to predict who is going to get action on a Saints team, but when Brees is on, TDs will be had.  For a $4500 price, Ill gladly take a stake in this when I need a low-priced WR.

Drew Brees ($11000)

I mentioned before that QBs playing ATL typically see some of their best games.  That is still true, though Brees statline is much more impressive at home then it is away (average of 27.8 fantasy points at home vs 18.23 in road games.  The $11000 tag is massive though, so I am including in one of my side lineups, but not my main one.  That is reserved for a low-priced QB facing an inept defense.

Pierre Thomas ($5800)

ATL’s pass defense is horrible, but so is their run D.  With Sproles possibly out for this game, Pierre Thomas could be in for a huge workload against a bad D on a good offense.  There are a lot of good RB options this week, but I am not going to pass on this opportunity.  Thomas is in my main lineup if Sproles ends up inactive for this game.  If not, hes still a good play, though not a great one like some others.

Week 11: How the Weather Impacted My Fanduel Lineup

Like I mentioned in the pickem, there are a few games this week that are going to be heavily effected by weather. They are.

BAL@CHI
CLE@CIN
NYJ@BUF
DET@PIT (lesser extent)

With that in mind, I made a few changes to my fanduel lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/11/14/week-11-nicks-fanduel-lineup/).

Out: Josh McCown ($5400)
In: Case Keenum ($6600)

I really did want to ride with McCown this week, but this wind here in Chicago is ridiculous and I just dont see him having a great day because of that. HOU has been throwing like crazy lately, and I love the matchup against OAK. Placing Keenum in still retains the value pick, but other changes will have to be made.

Out: Calvin Johnson ($10200)
In: Andre Johnson ($7500)

Yeah, Calvin will still probably have a great game, cause no CB or act of god can stop him, but I needed to make up some money somewhere. Decided to go with the most expensive option on the team that now gets a slight downgrade because of potential weather. Andre Johnson has been making the most out of every pass from Keenum, and I always like to double up with WR+QB combinations.

Out: Marvin Jones ($5600)
In: Vincent Jackson ($7100)

This one hurts the most. I really did think that Jones was in for a monster game this week, but with the weather, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Had a little leftover funds from the Johnson downgrade, so I upgraded here to Vincent Jackson. ATL has a horrendous secondary and TB has said they want to feed the ball to VJAX more. Sounds good to me.

Week 11: Nick’s Pickem

 

Tim and I both had a pretty good last week with regards to Pickem.  I went 10-4 and he went 9-4 with a no-pick on the Thursday game (GET UR PICKS IN SOONER).  I’m pretty sure he would have picked the Redskins as he had RG3 going in a lot of his fanduel lineups.  Im just going to assume it so that I can technically get the win for that week.  Alright, onto this week.

IND@TEN

In an ironic turn, it was me that was not able to get my picks in before Thursday. I told Tim to post that I wanted to pick the Titans, and here is probably what I would have posted.

“I dont believe the Titans are that great of a team, but just that they matchup really well with Indy. Indy has one single threat at Luck’s disposal and that is T.Y. Hilton. The only thing the titans do well is shutting down the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and I dont think Hilton is talented enough to overcome that. The titan’s biggest weakness is their ability to stop the run, but that wont matter cause Trent Richardson is a horrendous RB. He wont do anything significant. Offensively, the Titans should put up enough points to overcome whatever Indy is capable of doing.”

All of this would have been true, but because the Titans stink, they still lost. Its what I get.

NYJ@BUF

Weather is going to play a huge role in a few of these games with large storms occurring. Buffalo’s receiving core has already been torn to shreds coming into this game, but with high winds, I dont expect any of them to do anything. That leaves it to just the running game, which the Jets are the best at stopping. I dont see how Buffalo does anything offensively in this game. The Jets will find a way to score, because they always do. It wont be pretty, but I think the Jets win here.

BAL@CHI

Another weather-worn game, this will be determined by who proves to be worse, Ray Rice or the Chicago’s Run D. Ive seen both very closely this year as a Bears fan and as someone who drafted Ray Rice in my main fantasy league (probably shouldnt have admitted that). I am going to go with Chicago here. Sorry Ray.

CLE@CIN

I was really excited for this game cause of the whole anti-haden effect I wrote about in my Fanduel post. Marvin Jones was getting setup for a big one, but with the weather, I see this just turning into a really low scoring defensive battle. In the end, CIN will come out on top.

OAK@HOU

QBs getting their first start this year have done really really well. Still, Pryor was absolutely the best thing about the OAK offense, and I just dont see them making this work in anyway. HOU comes out on top.

ARI@JAC

Alright, JAC got in their one win. They can stop trying again. Seriously though, ARI is an underrated team.

WAS@PHI

PHI sucks at home for some unknown reason, so I am going to roll with the skins. I think this will be pretty high scoring, which means it wont be.

DET@PIT

Another game effected by weather, but less so then a few of the others. DET likes to throw away games they should win, but I dont see how they do that here. Their offense is too good and PIT’s is too bad.

ATL@TB

Ugh, what awful teams. In a scenario like this, I just roll with the home-dog.

SD@MIA

Not going to pick MIA for awhile. Just too much disarray.

SF@NO

Never picking against NO at home. Period.

GB@NYG

I think Tolzien surprises here and GB goes back to a slightly more balanced offense. No, hes not Rodgers, and no there will not be any QB controversy in GB. Still, Giants sell out to stop the run and GB changes things up a bit.

MIN@SEA

A seattle upset is bound to happen, but I am not going to believe its happening this game. The hawks are getting multiple offensive lineman back from injuries and Percy Harvin is starting for the first time, though very limited. Expecting a big offensive day against a defense that is practically a practice dummy.

KC@DEN

KC has had this game circled on their calenders for awhile. They will be playing at 100% while Manning might still be banged up a little. Expect KC to win, but in a close one.

NE@CAR

Love Carolina’s D and love that they beat SF on the road last week. Still, not betting against Hoodie coming out of a bye.

Week 11: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Last week in fanduel was decent, as I was able to break even with a minimum number of games. I felt like my predictions were right on, but none of my players ended up seeing the end zone. Lacy, Bush, Decker, Hilton, Wright, and Gates averaged for 86.5 yards, but not a single TD between them. Thank god for Peyton and my awesome kicker prediction with Steven Hauschka! The most important thing to take away from all of this though is that I crushed tim with a score of 118 to 77.78. Its okay Tim. I’m sure Pryor and Dez will have that breakout game as soon as you stop playing them. Anyway, onto next week.

As always, in order of how much I like them.

WR1: Marvin Jones ($5600) CLE@CIN

One of the more interesting trends in fantasy football revolves around the CLE Cornerback, Joe Haden. As an absolutely dominant CB, Haden has been able to shut down some of the league’s best receivers. That has led to some really nice production from the #2s on the team. Through the first nine weeks, Haden’s coverage has led to the #1s on the opposing teams accumulating the final stat line: 31/313/1. The #2s on the team have posted a stat line of 52/588/5. This trend alone would be enough to get me to think about any #2 WR facing CIN, though Jones is worth a consideration any week. Very talented receiver that has proven to be a threat in the end zone. All this for a mere 5600.

RB1: Jamaal Charles ($8800) KC@DEN

Despite being 9-0, KC continues to be thought of as the second best team in their division. I expect them to play at their best, with the focal point of their offense reaping the benefits. Charles worst game this year came last week against BUF for 12.6 pts. I expect him to bounce back from such an abysmal score into the 20s where he should be living. Oh and Denver’s run D is not that great. Its numbers are inflated because no one can run while being so far down. That is not going to happen against KC’s strong Defense.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5900) WAS@PHI

Yeah, Im back on the Reed train. My bad for getting off of it. Go read one of my other posts for all the details about why I love Reed.

QB: Josh McCown ($5400) BAL@CHI

I feel like I am taking a bit of a risk here, but I like the value too much. I dont think McCown is very talented, but hes placed in a system where production will just happen. He has two massive receivers on the outside between Marshall and Jeffrey, and a RB that can catch anything. I really do think any QB could have production in this system with Trestman in their ear. The rock-bottom price will let me really splurge in my next pick.

WR2: Calvin Johnson ($10200) DET@PIT

If you’re gonna splurge, Megatron is always a good option. The only CBs I would have any fear of covering him are Haden and Sherman, neither of which play for the Steelers.

RB2: Andre Ellington ($6000) ARI@JAC

This one could blow up in my face, but I’m willing to risk it for the potential upside. The Ellington / Mendenhall situation in Arizona continues to be one of the weirdest in all of the NFL. Ellington is explosive and better then Mendy in every way, yet Mendy remains the main back. I could easily see Ellington blowing up on any play he gets the ball, while Mendy’s best case scenario is around a 10 yard gain. Hoping Ellington has a big play and they ride the hot hand the rest of the game.

WR3: Wes Welker ($7400) KC@DEN

Welker has been super consistent all year long, except for last week. I see that as a random blip, and I like the matchup for Welker this week. KC will pressure Manning, forcing him into quick throws to Welker.

D/ST: Arizona Cardinals ($5700) ARI@JAC

Jaguars won their first game. Now they dont have to worry about being grouped in with the 2008 Lions. Time for them to go back to Sucking For Teddy Bridgewater.

K: Nick Novak ($5000) SD@MIA

Good offense against a team that is 3rd in pts allowed to kickers. Sure, why not.

Week 10: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week was a decent week for Fanduel, though Tim’s team did end up besting mine with a score of 135.62 to 114.26. Lots of really random big games for players around the league, and unfortunately I did not guess them (find me the post on the internet that predicted the 7x TD game for nick foles… I dare you). Anyway, looking forward to this week, here are my picks (as always, in the order in which I am confident in them).

RB1: Reggie Bush ($8500) DET@CHI
I would normally not be the most confident in a RB that is not the #1 weapon on a team, but for anyone that has not been paying attention, CHI’s run D is pretty god awful. Posted this history last week, and its worth repeating again. Here are the running stats against chicago in the last four games.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3
GB – 29/199/2

Without any threat of throwing the ball, GB was able to average 6.9 YPC against an 8-man front. You just cant do that against DET with Megatron out there. To top this all off, last time these two teams met, Chicago’s Run D was much stronger and they gave up 25.3 game to Bush. I like everything about this.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6200) DEN@SD
What I said two weeks ago about Decker being a steal for 6500 continues to remain true. Here, it gets even better. He is now priced 300 less, facing a very weak secondary in SD. I know hes not the guy you want in DEN, but for this price, how can you turn it down?

RB2: Eddie Lacy ($6800) PHI@GB
The one thing I do not like about Fanduel is that they do not update their prices very well. With Rodgers down, everyone knows that GB is going to run the ball 30 times. Lacy will get his, and at the price of $6800, you cant turn it down. This will be the last week Lacy will be going at steal prices, and while I dont like the idea of him probably being owned in 50% of teams this week, Im not going to go against the grain just for the sake of it.

WR2: T.Y. Hilton ($6000) STL@IND
There were 4 3x TD games last week for WRs and this is the one I was most willing to chase the points on. The loss of Wayne means that IND’s production will have to go somewhere. Hilton just stands as the biggest threat on the team, and I dont think its even close. The #1 WR on a good team with a great QB… for $6000? Yup, taking it.

QB: Peyton Manning ($10600) DEN@SD
Ive saved enough at this point where I can now splurge on a player. I feel like Manning’s floor this week is 25 pts, with his ceiling being… well… whatever he decides. SD has a bad D and Manning is coming off of a bye. Lots of pts. Lots.

TE: Antonio Gates ($5600) DEN@SD
Yeah, Im giving a lot of action on this game. I faded on my favorite TE, Jordan Reed, this week in favor of Gates, just because I wanted some piece of the SD side of this game. I still think DEN’s defense is bad, and SD’s improved offensive line will be able to hold rivers up long enough to pass the ball and not get pinatad like RG3 was two weeks ago. I see Gates as being one of the benefactors of this (along with Woodhead and Allen). Should be a really high scoring game.

DEF: Tennessee Titans ($5800) JAC@TEN
Yeah, I got burned on them last week. This week is against JAC though. How can I not go back to this well? I am no longer 100% believer in TEN’s D, but the options this week were slim.

WR3: Kendall Wright ($5200) JAC@TEN
There were a lot of options to choose from to close out the team, including Mike Brown, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Denarius Moore, but I ended up settling on Wright. He has shown that with Locker at the helm, he is going to get targets. Against an awful JAC team, there is a good chance for some production here.

K: Steven Hauschka ($5300) SEA@ATL
Figure SEA wins this game, but finds ways to not get in the end zone. Hauschka has been a pretty consistent option this season.