Tim’s Week 11 Pick’em!!!

Hey All,

So this is the week my bitterness finally catches up with me, as I have lost faith in several players I had assumed would break out of their collective funk eventually.  They will, of course, blow up this week, but here’s my analysis…
(Note – Nick wanted me to mention he’s picking the Titans this week, most likely because he hates Andrew Luck’s face)
Colts – Titans
Colts – The Colts have been bad the last few weeks.  Real bad.  Luckily, the Titans just lost to the Jags, so you don’t really get much lower than that.  I imagine this is the week Luck breaks out of his funk, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably end up being terrible.  I’m done thinking Trent Richardson will ever be decnt, apparently he maxes out at 3 YPC.  I actually do like Donald Brown, but I think they’re both usless without the other getting hurt.
Jets – Bills
Bills – For some reason, I think after a game under his feet being back from injury, EJ Manual will have a much better game here.  I’ve been a fan of his when healthy, and I think the RB weapons he’s got means the Jets will have to load up against the run and Manuel will end up having a pretty nice game here.  I think Chris Ivory will get a lot of run here, but in the end, I think Geno makes too many mistakes.
Ravens – Bears
Ravens – Ray Rice is garbage now.  I don’t know when it happened, but somehow he seems to have lost all the ability he once had.  That said, it’s the Bears D.  They have been terrible against the run, and it looks like anyone would be able to run through the holes being opened up.  Somethings gotta give.  Josh Mccown has actually been good while Cutler is out too.  Unfortunately, I don’t think he keeps it up another game. Marshall will be good, Forte will probably be good, and I actually think Rice has a decent game here.  In a game between my 2 favorite teams, I think the Ravens come out on top in a close game, with a few key turnovers being the difference.
Browns – Bengals
Bengals – The Browns are actually better than everyone thinks, but I just don’t think they have the firepower to get past the admittedly depleted Bengals D.  Bengals lost a tough game to the Ravens last week, and they’ll come out hungry.  The Bengals offense just has so many weapons that, when Dalton is on, which I think he will be, they’re incredibly hard to stop.  The Browns have literally only Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, who I think will both have good games, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get consistent offense going.
Lions – Steelers
Lions – Megatron is just a monster…he’s just so damn impressive.  I hate Stafford, but honestly, from a fantasy perspective, he should have another great game.  The Steelers D isn’t the old Steelers D, and Calvin Johnson should have a field day.  I don’t actually think Reggie Bush has a great game either.  From the Steelers end, I think Antonio Brown continues to be pretty damn good, and Leveon Bell scores another TD with around 60 yards.  While I’m not really a fan of his either, I actually think Emmanual Sanders have a long TD here as well.
Raiders – Texans
Texans – I love Case Keenum.  I may have mentioned it last week too, but especially now after he had a pretty good game against a really good Cardinals D, I think he’s for real.  He’s got to distribute to more than just Andre Johnson, but I think with all the attention to Johnson the Raiders will give, Deandre Hopkins has a good game here.  This however, is where I actually think Ben Tate breaks out and has a very Arian Foster-like game.  I still like Pryor, but the injury that is apparently now keeping him out of practice kills a lot of his running ability (and therefore, his fantasy value).  I think the Texans finally win their first game with Keenum, and win handily.
Cardinals – Jaguars
Cardinals – I can’t just put “It’s the Jags” anymore, since they officially got their first win, but make no mistake, that team is still hot garbage.  The Cardinals D is legit, and while I don’t have a ton of faith in Carson Palmer to not throw 2 picks in a game, I think the *gasp* Cardinals run game blows through the Jags awful D.  When I say run game, I think we all know I mean Ellington though, who should have a monster game, and definitely not Mendenhall, who may actually get a TD here.  Honestly though, do you really want 10 yards and a TD on 15 carries?
Redskins – Eagles
Redskins – So Nick Foles has a funny way of falling apart after a few starts in a row.  He’s looked real good in the last couple games, and he may turn it around, but history would dictate he’s about to fall apart.  Now the Redskins D is just awful, so I don’t think whatever implosion he has is too bad, but I don’t think he’s going to have nearly the type of game we’ve seen the last couple weeks.  I think RG3 is back to looking like himself, and while I think the tape on him may be there with regards to how to stop him, I don’t think the Eagles D will be able to execute.  I think Morris has a monster game here, and the Redskins win in what ends up being a shootout. 
Falcons – Buccaneers
Falcons – The Falcons have looked real bad recently.  That tends to happen when teams are eliminated from the playoffs, but this team is still better than it’s played.  I wouldn’t be surprised by a Bucs victory here, as I’ve been relatively impressed with Mike Glennon, but I think the loss of another RB will just make it that much more difficult for the Bucs to get their second win.  I think this is the last game of Roddy White being ineffective as well, as I wouldn’t start him against Revis, but starting next week, I think he’s going to start putting up some monster stat lines.
Chargers – Dolphins
Chargers – So the Dolphin’s implosion last week actually only seemed to last a single half, which was enough to get them a loss.  That said, their run game obviously suffered from the new linemen, and I don’t think that changes this game.  The Chargers have a pretty good offense, and I like Gates here, but I think they get to running and dink and dunk plays to keep the play clock moving once they get up a little bit.  I think this ends up being the shortest game of the week, and while the Dolphins sputter around and try to run, the Chargers score a few and just play keep away.
Packers – Giants
Giants – The Packers QB woes continue.  I never like to bet against a new QB that hasn’t been seen before, but I’m breaking that habit this week, as I think the Giants D has a monster game this week.  I think Eli has a decent game here, but I think Andre Brown runs all over them.  I don’t know which Packers receiver catches passes this week, and honestly, wouldn’t trust any of them yet.  I think Eddie Lacy gets bottled up this week, and the Giants win big.
Vikings – Seahawks
Seahawks – I know everyone seems to be penciling AP in for an incredible game here, but honestly, I’m just not buying it.  Ponder looked decent last week, so of course now he’s injured for this game, and no one should be afraid of Matt Cassel or Josh Freeman.  That means the Seahawks D (the best D in the league) loads up to stop Peterson, and allows Cassel or Freeman to pass, which will lead to picks.  I think Lynch has a couple TDs here and the Seahawks win handily.
49ers – Saints
Saints – Drew Brees is just ridiculous.  In a game where they ran the ball all over the Cowboys, he still managed an incredible performance.  I know the 49ers D is legit, but some QBs can’t be stopped and Brees is one of them.  I think he has a good game (good for him, so only, like, 400 yards and 3 TDs) here.  The 49ers offense is predicated on the run, so while I do think they run effectively, I think once they’re down 2 TDs or so, they have to pass, which has been a weakness recently.  Vernon Davis’s health is a question, and while the passing game would get a step up here if he plays, I still don’t think they’ll have enough to keep up with the Saints.
Chiefs – Broncos
Chiefs – This is going to be a game.  I don’t know who had the foresight before the season began to put this as a Sunday night game, but bravo.  While I don’t think Peyton’s ankle injury really effects him that much here, I don’t actually expect him to have a great game here.  I just have a feeling the Chiefs come out of the bye week hungry, and do what they do best, which is pressure the QB.  Charles is the best RB in the league right now, and while the Broncos have been good against the run, I think he gashes them for a few big plays here.  I think Bowe plays through his recent legal woes and actually has a pretty awesome game this week as well.  In what ends up being a close one, I think the Chiefs pull it out.
Patriots – Panthers
Patriots – Hey!! Monday Night Football finally has a decent matchup!  The Patriots D’s strength has always been to take away an offense’s best player, and while it works in almost all instances, I just don’t know how you do that to Cam Newton.  That said, I think Brady is back, and especially out of the bye week, I think he comes out slinging.  I expect Gronk to have a ridiculous game, and while I do think Cam manages to put up some points (I just have a feeling Olsen gets a TD or 2 here for some reason), I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the Patriots.  Patriots win in a close game.

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