Week 12: Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Again, last minute picks, so apologies for not getting these out when they are actually useful.  Like I had mentioned in my previous Thursday post, I rolled with Pierre Thomas in my main lineup, so this is all Thursday lineups anyway.

QB: Eli Manning ($6300) DAL@NYG
RB1: Zac Stacy ($7400) CHI@STL
RB2: Pierre Thomas ($5800) NO@ATL
WR1: Vincent Jackson ($8000) TB@DET
WR2: Andre Johnson ($7700) JAC@HOU
WR3: Eric Decker ($5800) DEN@NE
TE: Rob Gronkowski ($8200) DEN@NE
K: David Akers ($5000) TB@DET
D/ST: Carolina Panthers ($5700) CAR@MIA

Comments

Zac Stacy should be the #1 play for everyone this week.  Just ridiculous he is only $7400 against the Chicago D.  VJax and Andre Johnson have both been beasts lately.  Decker is a deal, and Gronk is a monster.  Carolina D should be good for 6+ sacks.

Week 12: Nick’s Pickem

Lots of last minute posts coming today.  Going to be keeping things a bit brief, just to make sure everything gets in for the week.

NO@ATL

Picked NO earlier in the week, and am glad I did. It was closer then I thought it would be, but I guess that happens when NO goes on the road.

NYJ@BAL

I know the jets have this on-game-off-game trend going on this year, and they are currently due for a win, but I am thinking BAL breaks their streak and doesnt allow an embarassing loss on their home field.

PIT@CLE

I just think that CLE matches up really well with PIT. Haden can take out Brown, and CLE’s run D can slow down Bell. CLE’s offense has some question marks, but PIT’s D aint that great.

TB@DET

Guess this one should be chalked up as the upset of the week. TB has been playing well lately, leaning heavily on VJax. They’ve also finally come out and said they are going to let Revis be Revis and he will be shadowing Megatron up and down the field. All of this plus Detroit’s tendency to lose games they should win and them looking forward to next week against the Packers, its enough to have me go with the road dogs.

MIN@GB

GB is bad without rodgers, but I still think they are better then MIN. Green Bay can still stop the run and that is really all you have to do against the vikings.

JAC@HOU

Still not picking JAX.

SD@KC

I like San Diego, but they have a tendency this year to barely lose games. KC has a tendency to barely win games. Going with the angry-KC coming off of their first loss.

CAR@MIA

This is like feeding a grizzly bear a wounded deer. CAR D line against MIA O line, Im expecting an embarassing amount of sacks.

CHI@STL

I think that STL will run up and down on the Bears, but CHI will come out on top. Very evenly matched with a strong D against a strong O.

IND@ARI

Same as before, take away T.Y. Hilton (Patrick Peterson) and IND’s offense will struggle. That is going to be the case against an overall much better D then TEN was last week.

TEN@OAK

Between two awful teams, I go with the home team. OAK will ride Rashad Jennings for ~25 touches against TEN’s awful run D.

DAL@NYG

Giants are on a bit of a comeback. Guess this shouldnt really surprise anyone. Swear this team can NEVER be counted out. I know DAL is coming off a bye, but I only feel like that matters with a good coach. Not reall the case here.

DEN@NE

God, what a game. So many sub-plots to this with Welker returning and Peyton vs Brady. Im going with NE, but the real winner here will be anyone watching the game.

SF@WAS

SF is just the better team. RG3 gets crushed, goes into dumbass mode where he throws a bunch of picks, and SF runs away with it.

 

Week 12 : Nick’s Thursday Thoughts

I will be doing a more in-depth recap of last week, as well as my full picks and fanduel lineup over the next few days.  For now, I wanted to make sure to get my relevant thoughts in for tonight’s game.

NO@ATL

NO does not play as well on the road, but I still dont see them losing the decrepit falcons.  Divisional games are usually closer then they should be, but I have faith in Brees and company to put up pts.

 

Fanduel Relevant Players

Kenny Stills ($4500)

Its very hard to predict who is going to get action on a Saints team, but when Brees is on, TDs will be had.  For a $4500 price, Ill gladly take a stake in this when I need a low-priced WR.

Drew Brees ($11000)

I mentioned before that QBs playing ATL typically see some of their best games.  That is still true, though Brees statline is much more impressive at home then it is away (average of 27.8 fantasy points at home vs 18.23 in road games.  The $11000 tag is massive though, so I am including in one of my side lineups, but not my main one.  That is reserved for a low-priced QB facing an inept defense.

Pierre Thomas ($5800)

ATL’s pass defense is horrible, but so is their run D.  With Sproles possibly out for this game, Pierre Thomas could be in for a huge workload against a bad D on a good offense.  There are a lot of good RB options this week, but I am not going to pass on this opportunity.  Thomas is in my main lineup if Sproles ends up inactive for this game.  If not, hes still a good play, though not a great one like some others.

Tim’s FanDuel Lineup!!!

Wasn’t exactly a great week last week, so here’s trying to fix that…

Robert Griffin III – 8400
I think RG3 finally got his groove back, and the Eagles D certainly isn’t able to stop anyone anyways. In a game that has to be a shootout, I imagine RG3 has a great stat line.

Ben Tate – 5700
Yea, I know they’ve been passing all over the place now, but teams finally have some tape on Case Keenum, and I think the Texans give Tate plenty of play here. I actually think he has a very Foster-like day.

Chris Ivory – 6400
The Bills D is bad against the run. Combine that with the Jets just getting as much out of Chris Ivory as possible recently, and I think that adds up to a good amount of yards and a TD or two.

Pierre Garcon – 7900
Going back to why I picked RG3, I also believe that Garcon gets the majority of the targets from Griffen.

Vincent Jackson – 7100
It’s been a couple down weeks for V Jax, but against a terrible Atl D, is what I believe is higher scoring than you’d think, I believe they start going back to Jackson.

Marvin Jones – 5600
The Haden effect will be in play here, and Marvin Jones, who’s been on the verge of great games the last couple weeks after 3 great games, will be the benefactor.

Rob Gronkowski – 8200
I actually think this game ends up a shootout, and I believe Gronk is one of, if not the best red zone threat in the league. I actually expect 2 TDs here.

Steven Hauschka – 5700
Just so happened to have 700 left after I picked everything, so why not take a potential 20 points out of my kicker.

Texans – 5000
No Pryor and a Texans D that’s starting to look like a solid unit again? Yea, I’ll take that. Plus, they’re cheap, can rush the passer, and should create some turnovers.

 

Week 11: How the Weather Impacted My Fanduel Lineup

Like I mentioned in the pickem, there are a few games this week that are going to be heavily effected by weather. They are.

BAL@CHI
CLE@CIN
NYJ@BUF
DET@PIT (lesser extent)

With that in mind, I made a few changes to my fanduel lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/11/14/week-11-nicks-fanduel-lineup/).

Out: Josh McCown ($5400)
In: Case Keenum ($6600)

I really did want to ride with McCown this week, but this wind here in Chicago is ridiculous and I just dont see him having a great day because of that. HOU has been throwing like crazy lately, and I love the matchup against OAK. Placing Keenum in still retains the value pick, but other changes will have to be made.

Out: Calvin Johnson ($10200)
In: Andre Johnson ($7500)

Yeah, Calvin will still probably have a great game, cause no CB or act of god can stop him, but I needed to make up some money somewhere. Decided to go with the most expensive option on the team that now gets a slight downgrade because of potential weather. Andre Johnson has been making the most out of every pass from Keenum, and I always like to double up with WR+QB combinations.

Out: Marvin Jones ($5600)
In: Vincent Jackson ($7100)

This one hurts the most. I really did think that Jones was in for a monster game this week, but with the weather, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Had a little leftover funds from the Johnson downgrade, so I upgraded here to Vincent Jackson. ATL has a horrendous secondary and TB has said they want to feed the ball to VJAX more. Sounds good to me.

Week 11: Nick’s Pickem

 

Tim and I both had a pretty good last week with regards to Pickem.  I went 10-4 and he went 9-4 with a no-pick on the Thursday game (GET UR PICKS IN SOONER).  I’m pretty sure he would have picked the Redskins as he had RG3 going in a lot of his fanduel lineups.  Im just going to assume it so that I can technically get the win for that week.  Alright, onto this week.

IND@TEN

In an ironic turn, it was me that was not able to get my picks in before Thursday. I told Tim to post that I wanted to pick the Titans, and here is probably what I would have posted.

“I dont believe the Titans are that great of a team, but just that they matchup really well with Indy. Indy has one single threat at Luck’s disposal and that is T.Y. Hilton. The only thing the titans do well is shutting down the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and I dont think Hilton is talented enough to overcome that. The titan’s biggest weakness is their ability to stop the run, but that wont matter cause Trent Richardson is a horrendous RB. He wont do anything significant. Offensively, the Titans should put up enough points to overcome whatever Indy is capable of doing.”

All of this would have been true, but because the Titans stink, they still lost. Its what I get.

NYJ@BUF

Weather is going to play a huge role in a few of these games with large storms occurring. Buffalo’s receiving core has already been torn to shreds coming into this game, but with high winds, I dont expect any of them to do anything. That leaves it to just the running game, which the Jets are the best at stopping. I dont see how Buffalo does anything offensively in this game. The Jets will find a way to score, because they always do. It wont be pretty, but I think the Jets win here.

BAL@CHI

Another weather-worn game, this will be determined by who proves to be worse, Ray Rice or the Chicago’s Run D. Ive seen both very closely this year as a Bears fan and as someone who drafted Ray Rice in my main fantasy league (probably shouldnt have admitted that). I am going to go with Chicago here. Sorry Ray.

CLE@CIN

I was really excited for this game cause of the whole anti-haden effect I wrote about in my Fanduel post. Marvin Jones was getting setup for a big one, but with the weather, I see this just turning into a really low scoring defensive battle. In the end, CIN will come out on top.

OAK@HOU

QBs getting their first start this year have done really really well. Still, Pryor was absolutely the best thing about the OAK offense, and I just dont see them making this work in anyway. HOU comes out on top.

ARI@JAC

Alright, JAC got in their one win. They can stop trying again. Seriously though, ARI is an underrated team.

WAS@PHI

PHI sucks at home for some unknown reason, so I am going to roll with the skins. I think this will be pretty high scoring, which means it wont be.

DET@PIT

Another game effected by weather, but less so then a few of the others. DET likes to throw away games they should win, but I dont see how they do that here. Their offense is too good and PIT’s is too bad.

ATL@TB

Ugh, what awful teams. In a scenario like this, I just roll with the home-dog.

SD@MIA

Not going to pick MIA for awhile. Just too much disarray.

SF@NO

Never picking against NO at home. Period.

GB@NYG

I think Tolzien surprises here and GB goes back to a slightly more balanced offense. No, hes not Rodgers, and no there will not be any QB controversy in GB. Still, Giants sell out to stop the run and GB changes things up a bit.

MIN@SEA

A seattle upset is bound to happen, but I am not going to believe its happening this game. The hawks are getting multiple offensive lineman back from injuries and Percy Harvin is starting for the first time, though very limited. Expecting a big offensive day against a defense that is practically a practice dummy.

KC@DEN

KC has had this game circled on their calenders for awhile. They will be playing at 100% while Manning might still be banged up a little. Expect KC to win, but in a close one.

NE@CAR

Love Carolina’s D and love that they beat SF on the road last week. Still, not betting against Hoodie coming out of a bye.

Tim’s Week 11 Pick’em!!!

Hey All,

 
So this is the week my bitterness finally catches up with me, as I have lost faith in several players I had assumed would break out of their collective funk eventually.  They will, of course, blow up this week, but here’s my analysis…
 
(Note – Nick wanted me to mention he’s picking the Titans this week, most likely because he hates Andrew Luck’s face)
 
Colts – Titans
Colts – The Colts have been bad the last few weeks.  Real bad.  Luckily, the Titans just lost to the Jags, so you don’t really get much lower than that.  I imagine this is the week Luck breaks out of his funk, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably end up being terrible.  I’m done thinking Trent Richardson will ever be decnt, apparently he maxes out at 3 YPC.  I actually do like Donald Brown, but I think they’re both usless without the other getting hurt.
 
Jets – Bills
Bills – For some reason, I think after a game under his feet being back from injury, EJ Manual will have a much better game here.  I’ve been a fan of his when healthy, and I think the RB weapons he’s got means the Jets will have to load up against the run and Manuel will end up having a pretty nice game here.  I think Chris Ivory will get a lot of run here, but in the end, I think Geno makes too many mistakes.
 
Ravens – Bears
Ravens – Ray Rice is garbage now.  I don’t know when it happened, but somehow he seems to have lost all the ability he once had.  That said, it’s the Bears D.  They have been terrible against the run, and it looks like anyone would be able to run through the holes being opened up.  Somethings gotta give.  Josh Mccown has actually been good while Cutler is out too.  Unfortunately, I don’t think he keeps it up another game. Marshall will be good, Forte will probably be good, and I actually think Rice has a decent game here.  In a game between my 2 favorite teams, I think the Ravens come out on top in a close game, with a few key turnovers being the difference.
 
Browns – Bengals
Bengals – The Browns are actually better than everyone thinks, but I just don’t think they have the firepower to get past the admittedly depleted Bengals D.  Bengals lost a tough game to the Ravens last week, and they’ll come out hungry.  The Bengals offense just has so many weapons that, when Dalton is on, which I think he will be, they’re incredibly hard to stop.  The Browns have literally only Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, who I think will both have good games, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get consistent offense going.
 
Lions – Steelers
Lions – Megatron is just a monster…he’s just so damn impressive.  I hate Stafford, but honestly, from a fantasy perspective, he should have another great game.  The Steelers D isn’t the old Steelers D, and Calvin Johnson should have a field day.  I don’t actually think Reggie Bush has a great game either.  From the Steelers end, I think Antonio Brown continues to be pretty damn good, and Leveon Bell scores another TD with around 60 yards.  While I’m not really a fan of his either, I actually think Emmanual Sanders have a long TD here as well.
 
Raiders – Texans
Texans – I love Case Keenum.  I may have mentioned it last week too, but especially now after he had a pretty good game against a really good Cardinals D, I think he’s for real.  He’s got to distribute to more than just Andre Johnson, but I think with all the attention to Johnson the Raiders will give, Deandre Hopkins has a good game here.  This however, is where I actually think Ben Tate breaks out and has a very Arian Foster-like game.  I still like Pryor, but the injury that is apparently now keeping him out of practice kills a lot of his running ability (and therefore, his fantasy value).  I think the Texans finally win their first game with Keenum, and win handily.
 
Cardinals – Jaguars
Cardinals – I can’t just put “It’s the Jags” anymore, since they officially got their first win, but make no mistake, that team is still hot garbage.  The Cardinals D is legit, and while I don’t have a ton of faith in Carson Palmer to not throw 2 picks in a game, I think the *gasp* Cardinals run game blows through the Jags awful D.  When I say run game, I think we all know I mean Ellington though, who should have a monster game, and definitely not Mendenhall, who may actually get a TD here.  Honestly though, do you really want 10 yards and a TD on 15 carries?
 
Redskins – Eagles
Redskins – So Nick Foles has a funny way of falling apart after a few starts in a row.  He’s looked real good in the last couple games, and he may turn it around, but history would dictate he’s about to fall apart.  Now the Redskins D is just awful, so I don’t think whatever implosion he has is too bad, but I don’t think he’s going to have nearly the type of game we’ve seen the last couple weeks.  I think RG3 is back to looking like himself, and while I think the tape on him may be there with regards to how to stop him, I don’t think the Eagles D will be able to execute.  I think Morris has a monster game here, and the Redskins win in what ends up being a shootout. 
 
Falcons – Buccaneers
Falcons – The Falcons have looked real bad recently.  That tends to happen when teams are eliminated from the playoffs, but this team is still better than it’s played.  I wouldn’t be surprised by a Bucs victory here, as I’ve been relatively impressed with Mike Glennon, but I think the loss of another RB will just make it that much more difficult for the Bucs to get their second win.  I think this is the last game of Roddy White being ineffective as well, as I wouldn’t start him against Revis, but starting next week, I think he’s going to start putting up some monster stat lines.
 
Chargers – Dolphins
Chargers – So the Dolphin’s implosion last week actually only seemed to last a single half, which was enough to get them a loss.  That said, their run game obviously suffered from the new linemen, and I don’t think that changes this game.  The Chargers have a pretty good offense, and I like Gates here, but I think they get to running and dink and dunk plays to keep the play clock moving once they get up a little bit.  I think this ends up being the shortest game of the week, and while the Dolphins sputter around and try to run, the Chargers score a few and just play keep away.
 
Packers – Giants
Giants – The Packers QB woes continue.  I never like to bet against a new QB that hasn’t been seen before, but I’m breaking that habit this week, as I think the Giants D has a monster game this week.  I think Eli has a decent game here, but I think Andre Brown runs all over them.  I don’t know which Packers receiver catches passes this week, and honestly, wouldn’t trust any of them yet.  I think Eddie Lacy gets bottled up this week, and the Giants win big.
 
Vikings – Seahawks
Seahawks – I know everyone seems to be penciling AP in for an incredible game here, but honestly, I’m just not buying it.  Ponder looked decent last week, so of course now he’s injured for this game, and no one should be afraid of Matt Cassel or Josh Freeman.  That means the Seahawks D (the best D in the league) loads up to stop Peterson, and allows Cassel or Freeman to pass, which will lead to picks.  I think Lynch has a couple TDs here and the Seahawks win handily.
 
49ers – Saints
Saints – Drew Brees is just ridiculous.  In a game where they ran the ball all over the Cowboys, he still managed an incredible performance.  I know the 49ers D is legit, but some QBs can’t be stopped and Brees is one of them.  I think he has a good game (good for him, so only, like, 400 yards and 3 TDs) here.  The 49ers offense is predicated on the run, so while I do think they run effectively, I think once they’re down 2 TDs or so, they have to pass, which has been a weakness recently.  Vernon Davis’s health is a question, and while the passing game would get a step up here if he plays, I still don’t think they’ll have enough to keep up with the Saints.
 
Chiefs – Broncos
Chiefs – This is going to be a game.  I don’t know who had the foresight before the season began to put this as a Sunday night game, but bravo.  While I don’t think Peyton’s ankle injury really effects him that much here, I don’t actually expect him to have a great game here.  I just have a feeling the Chiefs come out of the bye week hungry, and do what they do best, which is pressure the QB.  Charles is the best RB in the league right now, and while the Broncos have been good against the run, I think he gashes them for a few big plays here.  I think Bowe plays through his recent legal woes and actually has a pretty awesome game this week as well.  In what ends up being a close one, I think the Chiefs pull it out.
 
Patriots – Panthers
Patriots – Hey!! Monday Night Football finally has a decent matchup!  The Patriots D’s strength has always been to take away an offense’s best player, and while it works in almost all instances, I just don’t know how you do that to Cam Newton.  That said, I think Brady is back, and especially out of the bye week, I think he comes out slinging.  I expect Gronk to have a ridiculous game, and while I do think Cam manages to put up some points (I just have a feeling Olsen gets a TD or 2 here for some reason), I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the Patriots.  Patriots win in a close game.