Week 9 : Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Last week had its ups-and-downs.  If you only read my initial fanduel post last week and not the sunday morning follow-up, it was absolutely more downs.  Heres a quick recap of some of the highs and lows.

Hit:  Andre Ellington.  Last minute change based on Mendenhall being out.  Ellington proved his talent by flourishing when he was given a decent workload.  His 80-yd TD run was a thing of beauty.  I still dont know if Arians is going to realize what he has and do the right thing, so be careful on how much faith you have in Ellington going forward.

Miss:  RG3.  Oh what a miss.  Looking back on it, I would say here is the lesson to be learned.  RG3 excels best when his team can run the ball.  Forcing him to be the playmaker just hasnt worked this season like it did last.

Hit: Jordy Nelson.  The most consistent WR this season had a great game against a bad Defense.  Yeah, wasnt the last time Im picking him.

Miss:  Marshawn Lynch.  Apparently, Lynch’s actions pissed off his coaching staff.  Enough to the point where they decided to not lean on him when they should have.  I expect Lynch to bounce back, though my confidence is shaken.

Miss:  Sproles / Colston.  I accurately predicted that NO would do awesome.  I inaccurately predicted how it was going to be done.  Still cant believe Sproles got a zero, but hopefully you switched him out sunday morning like suggested.

Alright, moving onto to next week.  Here are my initial thoughts.  Again, in order of what I am most confident in.

RB1: Eddie Lacy ($6800) CHI@GB

I really do not understand how Lacy can only be $6800 given the last few weeks and the matchup.  GB has been running more then ever, with Lacy being the head guy.  The last three weeks he has brought in the following fantasy numbers 13, 19.3, 19.2.  This week, he faces an abysmal Chicago Run D that only got worse with the loss of defensive leader Lance Briggs.  Briggs has not only been the playmaker, but has been the one making the adjustments.  Chicago’s D looks to only get worse and that is bad.  Here are the rushing stats they have given up the last three weeks.

NO – 44/169/2
NYG – 28/135/2
WAS – 31/141/3

Anyone can run on CHI right now, and Lacy is very capable of doing so.  Start him with confidence for his ridiculously cheap price.

WR1: Denarius Moore ($4900) PHI@OAK

I hate going back to someone that burned me in the past, but there is just too much value here to pass up.  Moore had a bad last week against a tough pass D in a conservative gameplan.  This week, he faces the team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs.  As the #1 receiver for his team, and averaging 11.4 FPPG, I cannot pass up the $4900 price tag.

TE:  Jordan Reed ($5600) SD@WAS

If you have been watching the WAS games lately, you will know why I plan on riding Jordan Reed until he gets injured or until his price tag goes up to $6500 or so.  He has become RG3s favorite target, and while that didnt mean many TDs last week, it still meant a line of 8/90/0 for Reed.  Upon dropping two passes, Reed was apparently distraught the whole week and forced himself to catch 500 balls from a football chucker.

QB:  Cam Newton ($8900) ATL@CAR

While I really like some of the cheaper options this week including Locker and Pryor, I already included enough value to allow myself to splurge a bit.  Cam Newton is the definition of a boom or bust player, and the matchup is too good to ignore.  It can be hard to predict when Cam Newton will go off, but when he does, its worth it.  This week, he faces an ATL D that is worse then they appear.  Here is their history this season in terms of pts allowed to QBs.

Drew Brees 20.48 #4 Week
Sam Bradford 26.58 #1 Week
Ryan Tannehill 14.14 #4 Week
Tom Brady 20.44 #1 Week
Geno Smith 22.06 #3 Week
Mike Glennon 17.54 #2 Week
Carson Palmer 13.78 #3 Week

So pretty much everyone that faces ATL has one of their best weeks against them.  The only reason ATL isnt near the top of the pts allowed list is because of the quality of QBs they have faced.  Should be a good chance for Cam Newton to go off.

WR2:  Jordy Nelson ($7800) CHI@GB

This goes against my rule of no WR/RB combinations, but I love both this week enough to roll the dice.  Nelson is the most consistent WR this year, and he is still available for under 8k.  Against an awful defense, while the rest of the main WR core is still in question.  Guaranteed points with a huge upside.  Whats not to like?

RB2:  Le’Veon Bell ($7000) PIT@NE

I originally went for Danny Woodhead in this slot, but changed to Bell given the extra money.  Bell has been running well since coming back from injury and he faces a defense that has struggled greatly against the run since losing Wilfork.  Bell should be good for 60 yards and a TD with a chance at multiple TDs if the situation is right.

WR3:  AJ Green ($8700) CIN@MIA

With enough leftover funds, I had the choice between AJ and Dez.  Both are absolute studs, and I don’t think I would be crazy for picking either.  This was more of a pick against Dez then it was a pick for AJ.  Dez has two interesting trends going into this game.  Trend #1 involves a number 1 receiver complaining about his role in an offense and then blowing up the next week.  This year, it started with Wallace in MIA, and then later in CHI with Marshall.  Always gotta keep the #1 receiver happy.  The other trend is that when DAL wins a game, Dez has a bad-to-mediocre game.  When Dez loses a game, he has a great fantasy week.  I dont see any chance at MIN beating DAL, so I expect this to be a loss and therefore Dez to just not be a big part of their offensive plan.  For that reason, I’m going with the other high-priced stud receiver.

D/ST:  Tennessee Titans ($5200) TEN@STL

I officially do not believe in the KC D anymore.  After being burned the last two weeks, I decided to go for a more economical option based on matchup.  TEN is in the fight for a playoff shot, and coming off of a bye, I expect them to play strong against a STL team that will be drained after a tough last second loss.  To make matters worse, the only positive that can be said regarding STL’s offense has been Zac Stacy.  He is now injured.  I don’t see how STL is capable of doing anything here.

K:  Nick Novak ($5000) SD@WAS

WAS has a bad D.  SD can move the ball.  Yeah, that’s all I got.

Week 9: Pickem and Recap of Last Week

Hey everyone!

Sorry for the few days absence.  Should have everything for w9 coming up.  First, a recap of a conversation I had earlier in the week with Tim.

Me: “I redeemed myself this week!  Went 10-2 this week in Pickem!”

Tim: “I went 11-1”

Me: “DAMNIT!”

Of course I improve this week only to still fall a game short.  I liked ARZ, but still doubted them.  I also went with the home-dog in a game of two bad teams.  Apparently, I underestimated just how bad PHI is when their offense struggles.  Just nothing to show for the last couple of weeks.  Alright, so moving on here are this week’s picks.

CIN@MIA

CIN is just clicking on all levels and MIA is #1 in sacks allowed.  Not going to be an easy night for the phins.
ATL@CAR

ATL has been an easy ride for all QBs theyve faced, and now they are going on the road against a red hot cam newton.  To make matters worse, Carolina’s D is no joke.
MIN@DAL

MIN is awful.  Having Adrian Peterson on your team is like lowering the difficulty setting to easy, and still losing.  DAL is the same team as theyve always been, and will finish probably finish the season around 9-7.  I expect this game to be one of the 9.
NO@NYJ

So it looks like I was right about NO coming out of their bye week stomping the opposition.  I was completely wrong in how they were going to do it, but thats another story for another post.  The jets can do one thing really really well and that is stop the run.  Shame it wont matter in this contest cause they are facing drew brees.
TEN@STL

TEN is one of those sneaky teams that has an actual chance at a playoff birth.  Coming out of a bye week, I expect them to stomp STL who is just coming off of a very disappointing last second loss against a divisional rival.
KC@BUF

KC is not going 16-0 this season, but I also don’t think they are losing to BUF.
SD@WAS

So apparently all those “RG3 IS BACK!” thoughts are distant history, right?  Again, another story for another post.  SD has been playing smart football lately, and I personally think Mike McCoy should at least be mentioned in the coach of the year discussions (yeah, I know its going to Reid, but like I said, the mention should be there).  Just look what he has done with Rivers, Woodhead, and Matthews.  Coming out of a bye, I always believe in coaching, and against a WAS team riddled with weaknesses, I see SD coming out on top.
PHI@OAK

Poor Chip Kelly.  Apparently no one told him that Vick is not capable of playing a whole season, and an offense revolving around him is a bad idea.  Without Vick, this offense has no purpose.  That just leaves an awful defense.  Weird to pick OAK with confidence, but that is what I am doing here.
TB@SEA

Schiano fired yet?  No?  Alright, I’ll ask again next week.
BAL@CLE

I am a huge believer that CLE is an underrated team, but again… I am going with good coaching coming out of a bye.  I am hoping Ray Rice visited some Tibet monk to try and regain his running essence.
PIT@NE

I think that PIT will run all over NE in this one, but NE will find a way to win… like they always do.
IND@HOU

Not a huge Indy fan after the loss of Reggie Wayne, but im less of a HOU fan.  Foster’s status for this game is unsure, and that leaves their offense with much to be desired.
CHI@GB

Chicago Bears homer here.  This one is going to be ugly.  There are no words to describe how bad our run D is, and the only guy that has been doing anything all season (Lance Briggs) will be out for the first time.  I expect Lacy to make his rookie of the year claims on Monday night.

Tim’s FanDuel Lineup

Hey guys – Here’s the FanDuel Lineup I’m most confident in.  I’ll start to add some more picks and sleepers in the coming weeks.

 

QB – Terrelle Pryor – 6800 – I love the price here.  Coming out of the bye, people forgot he was good, and I think he keeps it up against a Steelers D that has allowed a lot of passing yards.

RB – Marshawn Lynch – 8600 – Lynch is going to have a field day against the Rams.  Beast Mode goes nuts here.

RB – Frank Gore – 7400 – Same thing goes for Gore.  I think the 49ers D keep the Jags down, and they run all day.

WR – DeSean Jackson – 7500 – Giants and Eagles will be a little bit of a high scoring game, and I think Jackson gets his.

WR – Pierre Garcon – 6700 – Pretty much the same thing for this game, as RG3 will be looking his way while he’s on the run from Von Miller.

WR – Marques Colston – 6400 – This is a gut call.  Coming out of their bye, they haven’t gotten it to one of their best weapons.  That, combine with the fact Graham is still hurting, I’ll take my chances on a big game from him.

TE – Tony Gonzalez – 5600 – Now that teams have to gameplan for Harry Douglas, Gonzalez gets a little more open and destroys the Cardinals in the red zone.

K – Kai Forbath – 5000 – He’s a K on a pretty good offense, playing on a team they’ll have to score a boatload of points against.  Also minimum cost.

D – Seahawks – 6000 – I seriously wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams score no points and there’s a couple pick-six’s TDs

Tim’s (The Other Guys) Pick’Em

What up everyone!  So I had a decent week, went 9-4, not too shabby.  Once again getting these in last second, but here’s my picks for the weekend.

 

Dal – Det

Lions – Something seems off in Dallas.  Romo has been off for the past couple weeks now, and while I think he has a better game this week, I don’t think it’s enough to keep up with CJ and Reggie.  Think a big game is coming for Bush.  Murray is still hurt, and the balance just won’t be there.  Dez and Williams should both have good games.

 

Cle – KC

Chiefs – Who could have guessed the Chiefs would’ve been the last undefeated team.  Seriously, I would’ve taken any bet put in front of me regarding that.  That said, I’m now a believer.  The Chiefs D is legit, and while the Browns D is pretty good, they’re not that good, and Smith refuses to make mistakes.  PS Charles is ridiculous.

 

Mia – NE

Patriots – While normally I’d say this could be a trap game, hoodie won’t let that happen 2 weeks in a row.  I can’t even imagine what practice was like.  I think Brady finally gets back on track with another week of his favorite target being back.  I keep wanting to say the Dolphins try to get their run game back on track, it’s just not happening.  While I think Miller could have a good game, they just refuse to use him.  This will probably be close, but I think the Patriots pull this one out.

 

Buf – NO

Saints – The Saints D is real good.  Brees just loves to throw, and when you’re behind by a couple scores, that D really gets a chance to shine with the impressive blitz formations Rob Ryan throws out there.  I think Thad Lewis finally shows he’s not really an NFL QB, especially with Spiller being injured.  I know he hasn’t been very good this season, but you have to gameplan for him,  I think the Saints blow them out.

 

NYG – Phi

Giants – The Giants finally got a win, and actually looked pretty good doing it.  Granted, it definitely could’ve been that Freeman played just awfully, but they at least contained AP.  While I think Vick has a good fantasy day, I don’t think the defense can stop anything, and the Giants will pass up and down on them.  This one ends up in kind of a shootout, but the Giants pull it out in the end.

 

SF – Jac

49ers – It’s the Jags…Is there really anything else to say?  Nope, but the 49ers are going to run up and down all over them.  49ers D smothers them and Gore runs on an NFL record 100% of the plays.

 

NYJ – Cin

Bengals – After a good game from Geno, it’s time for a bad one.  The Bengals D is legit, and has been playing like the top 5 D they should be.  While I think Dalton is very good, Green is a star, and will make him look good.  Think this is a close game, but Bengals pull it out.

 

Pit – Oak

Raiders – I love teams out of the bye week, and I love Terrelle Pryor.  Steelers finally looked good last week, but I don’t think their D can keep up with the Raiders.  Bell should have a good game, but I believe the Raiders end up on top in the end.

 

Wsh – Den

Broncos – I know everyone thinks this ends in a shootout, but honestly, I think the Broncos D has a much better game this game.  Another week with Von Miller back, and now they should be able to get pressure.  The Redskins D is garbage, and while RG3 and the O should score a few points, it’s not going to be nearly enough to keep up with Peyton.

 

Atl – Ari

Falcons – Carson Palmer is garbage.  Ellington will be starting and while I think he has a good game, Matt Ryan showed he could do it without his primary weapons.  I expect the coverage has to shift slightly to compensate for Harry Douglas and Gonzalez has a monster game.  Falcons win handily.

 

GB – Min

Packers – The Vikings seem to be awful now.  I think Rodgers makes all the right, smart throws, and Lacy runs up and down on the Vikings.  Peterson should get back to form a little bit, but too little too late.

 

Sea – StL

Seahawks – This is going to be a blowout.  Richard Sherman is going to have a field day, and despite the fact that Zac Stacy has looked good, I’d be surprised if the Rams score more than 7.

Week 8 : Nick’s Fanduel Update

Not always going to post these, but there is one particular development this morning that alters my fanduel lineup.

ARI RB Rashad Mendenhall was out of practice all week and has officially been ruled out of today’s game.  That puts rookie RB Andre Ellington into the spotlight against Atlanta.  While I still do not trust ARI to ride Ellington as much as they should, here is a very talented starting RB that you can slot into your lineup for a mere $5200.  That’s a steal that I have to take advantage of.  From my previously posted lineup (http://liesandstats.com/2013/10/24/week-8-nicks-fanduel-lineup/), I am dropping Sproles for Ellington, giving me a whopping $1400 additional to play with.  Here is what I am doing with it.

Upgrading KC D to SEA D ($100)

Been wanting to do this because of the switch from Wheeden, but could never come up with the $100.  This was the first option I jumped to.

Upgrading Jordan Reed to Tony Gonzalez ($200)

I am not 100% sold on this being an upgrade, but I did want to create a bit of variety in my lineups because Reed is slotted in the majority of my Thursday lineups.  This is as best-case-scenario to play Gonz that you are going to see all season with ARI being the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to TEs.  If Gonz cant break double digits in this game, he wont be rosterable in fanduel for the rest of the season IMO.

Upgrading Denarius Moore to Marques Colston ($1000)

Graham is officially ACTIVE for this game, though I expect him to be very limited.  No reason for them to push the guy against what should be a layup.  I still want a stake in this game as NO should roll Buffalo.  Colston hasnt been himself all season, but he has that boom/bust potential as high as anyone in the league.  Rolling the dice here and hoping for his breakout game.

Upgrading Henery to Akers ($100)

Had a $100 left.  Guess ill update my kicker to a Akers in what should be a high scoring game.

Week 8 : Sunday and Monday Pickem

Redemption Time!  Had just the worst week last week, so now its time to set it right.  Here goes!

DAL@DET

So I actually see these two teams as being really even, with the difference maker here being home field advantage.  Dallas’ D has been playing well yesterday, though I don’t think they have the weapons to stop Detroit on the road when Detroit is fully healthy.  That last word being the key word there.  Megatron looked healthy enough last week when he crushed the competition, but there have been reports of Reggie Bush also suffered an injury in practice, though it is looking like he will play.  I have DET squeaking out a win here.

SF@JAC

SF is apparently a good team.  JAX is apparently a bad one.  I really shouldn’t have to explain this one.

CLE@KC

If CLE had Hoyer behind QB, I might actually make the argument that they have a chance.  With Jason Campbell back there, they are primed for defeat.  The one interesting thing about this game to me is Haden’s nullification.  One of the best things about this defense is Haden’s ability to shut down the opposing team’s #1 receiver.  What the hell is he going to do this game?  Shut down Dwayne Bowe?  I imagine Bowe laughing at Haden all game while on the line of scrimmage as Haden watches from out wide as Jamaal Charles tears apart his team.

MIA@NE

Okay, Gronk had his practice run, now its time for the real thing.  MIA just isnt that good and NE should roll them.

BUF@NO

While BUF is not a bad team, NO should be unstoppable this week.  Suffered their first loss two weeks ago and then went into a bye week.  Two weeks to stew in their own defeat and formulate a game-plan for BUF when they play them at home.  I don’t see any scenario where NO loses this week at home, regardless of who they were facing.

NYG@PHI

Two evenly bad teams, I am going to go with the homer again.  I do think Vick being back is a plus for the Eagles, though they will almost assuredly lose the game if Barkley has to step in at QB if Vick gets injured.

NYJ@CIN

Still dont believe in the Jets.  Starting to believe in the Bengals.

PIT@OAK

This is a tough one.  OAK is an interesting team for the first time in years and they are coming off a bye at home.  I think OAK barely edges this one out.

ATL@ARI

Interesting stat.  Every time a team has played SEA this year, that team has lost the following week.  Apparently, the defense runs you ragged.  To make matters even worse, the last three defenses ARI has played have been CAR, SF, and SEA.  Figure it will be a week removed from that schedule before they can fully recover.  Also, ARI is a dumb team that knows how to lose games, while ATL is still convinced they can make the playoffs and will therefore be fighting with everything they have.

 

WAS@DEN

Nothing cures a football hangover like the WAS D.  Peyton Manning and company should take advantage of one of the worst Ds in football.  I expect a shootout here with the final score being closer then most think, though DEN winning in the end.

GB@MIN

MIN made the argument for them actually being the worst team in the league despite having a win and having one of the best players in football on their team.  Ponder is the new QB over that other guy, so that at least gives them a chance.  Oh wait, no it doesnt cause they are playing GB.  GB will destroy them and look good doing it.

 

SEA@STL

If you are starting your first game as QB, the last thing I would want would be to stare down the secondary of SEA.  STL needs about 3-4 special teams TDs for any chance to win this.  Not happening.

Week 8 : Nick’s Fanduel Lineup

Hey everyone! Every week we will be posting our primary Fanduel lineups prior to Thursday’s game.  For any of you that do not know what Fanduel is, it is a site for 1-week salary cap based fantasy leagues. I highly recommend checking it out for any fantasy football enthusiasts (www.fanduel.com).  If you don’t care at all about Fanduel, these posts should still have some valuable information about the players we like the most this week. This should go without saying, but I do feel I need to state the obvious. Do not go betting your life savings on one of these lineups and then curse our names when it doesn’t score 200 pts. Remember that in the end, its always your call. Alright, here goes…

The best way to go through my lineup is to go through my process and show it in the same order that I built it. I’ll start with my must-haves and build around them accordingly.

WR1: Eric Decker ($6500) WAS@DEN
The more I looked at this, the more I realized just how criminally under-priced Decker currently is. He is currently the same price as Harry Douglas, Mike Wallace, and Roddy White despite coming off of a season high 25 pt game and an ideal match up. Both WAS and DEN have horrible defenses with great offenses. This should be a high scoring game, but its even better than that for Decker. DeAngelo Hall has been playing pretty well the last few weeks, holding Dez Bryant to a 5/36/0 line and Brandon Marshall to a 6/75/0 line. For covering these elite WRs, these are great numbers. Expect him to shadow Demarius Thomas the whole game, leaving Decker to the remaining secondary that has let WR2s shine all season. Combine this with the WAS safety being suspended and an angry peyton manning and decker actually has a chance of topping the previous week. All that for a mere $6500.

WR2: Jordy Nelson ($7800) GB@MIN
Yup, another WR that I think we are getting great value out of. Nelson has been awesome the whole season, even managing to put up a 5/42/1 line last week against one of the top 3 corners in the league in Joe Haden. I imagine that was a game where Rodgers would have liked to rely on his only experienced WR, but couldn’t because of Haden. I see Rodgers making up for it this week against a secondary that is 9th in pts allowed to WRs. Oh and its a Sunday night game, and Rodgers has an ego that pushes him into overdrive when the spotlight is on him. Can easily see him feeding Jordy all game.

TE: Jordan Reed ($5400) WAS@DEN
If you read my previous article on WW pickups, this shouldnt come as a surprise. Massive value here in a great matchup for a talented TE on a strong offense. I imagine WAS going into catchup mode early in this game and Reed acting as RG3’s favorite target. And yes, Gronk is a tempting option here, but I ended up going for the value pick.

RB1: Marshawn Lynch ($8600) SEA@STL
I’ll always prefer to be stacked at RB, and I have conserved enough so far that I can splurge a bit here. Lynch is the 4th priced RB this week, though I think I might actually have him as my favorite overall regardless of price. STL is garbage against the run (4th) and SEA has no problems running up the score against a divisional opponent. In addition to the amazing matchup, SEA re-signed their former pro-bowl lead blocking fullback Michael Robinson. Robinson was cut at the beginning of the season due to salary and an illness, but is now back in full force. Lynch is a fan, and you should be too. This is also a good time to point out one of my favorite all time screen caps from a football game. Below you will find Lynch’s reaction towards his sideline after coming out of the huddle in a goal line situation where the play-call was play-action pass.

Lynch

QB: Robert Griffin III ($8800) WAS@DEN
3rd player from this game now, so going to keep it short. Old RG3 is back, and Den is #1 in pts allowed for QBs. Yes, I would like to have Peyton on my team (like I would every week), but this is a much more economical option.

RB2: Darren Sproles ($6600) BUF@NO
Tim wrote the following in his PickEm article last week “Love teams (or at least decent and good teams) coming out of their bye.” Absolutely agree with this, but need to stress the good part. MIA turned out to not fit that criteria, but NO does. Sean Peyton is one of the top coaches in the NFL and he just went into the bye week after his team’s first loss of the season. Thinking he didn’t spend that much time at the beach. NO lost mainly because their biggest weapon, Jimmy Graham was completely shut down. He also suffered an injury that left his status as questionable for the last two weeks. I imagine Peyton has spent the last two weeks game-planning for an alternative option. I think this will include heavy use of their second most talented player in Darren Sproles. Id consider investing in a NO receiver, but this is a safer pick.

D: Kansas City Chiefs ($5900) CLE@KC
This is where I will personally start to vary up my lineups. I was 100% on board with the KC D before the recent announcement of Jason Campbell starting over Wheeden. Campbell is just as much of a hack, but he is a conservative hack. Where Wheeden will stand in the pocket way too long as he waits for someone to get open, Campbell will just check down every pass. I still like KC to possibly shut out CLE completely, but I don’t expect the massive sacks / turnovers that I would with Wheeden. Still, it felt like the best option given my remaining funds.

WR3: Denarius Moore ($5400) PIT@OAK
Purely a value pick. Moore has been averaging 12.7 FPPG this season, yet he is only $5400. Felt he was the best option all the way up to $6000 where Terrance Williams was available, which explains why I still went with KC as my D.

K: Alex Henery ($5000) NYG@PHI
Henery put up 20 pts when PHI last faced NYG. Hope he does it again?

Final lineup
QB: Robert Griffin III ($8800)
RB1: Marshawn Lynch ($8600)
RB2: Darren Sproles ($6600)
WR1: Jordy Nelson ($7800)
WR2: Eric Decker ($6500)
WR3: Denarius Moore ($5400)
TE: Jordan Reed ($5400)
K: Alex Henery ($5000)
D: Kansas City Chiefs ($5900)